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Dear Fellow Traveler: Jamie Dimon just discovered the economy is weakening. In related news, the Titanic's captain once noticed the deck was wet. I don’t understand how this is even a headline story… The Labor Department revised job numbers down by 911,000 - the biggest revision in two decades. Think about this… The government has been lying to you for a year about the strength of the job market… And Jamie Dimon just figured this out? And no one asked about what’s happening in the bond market? And everyone just played nice? Does anyone understand how much information this man has? Ask him… They let him get away with this remark… "Whether it's on the way to recession or just weakening, I don't know," Dimon said. JPMorgan knows EXACTLY how bad it is. They see every credit card transaction, every mortgage payment, every corporate credit line. When he says "consumers still have jobs and are spending money," he leaves out the part where they're spending on 29% APR credit cards that JPMorgan issues. This is the same guy who said Bitcoin was a fraud while his bank was secretly building crypto trading desks. I used to revere Dimon. Now, I just see another guy playing a rigged game… He’s the same guy whose bank got to buy First Republic for the price of a hotbdog because the "strong" economy killed it. Dimon says rate cuts might not "be consequential to the economy." Translation: We're pushing on a string. The Fed's out of ammo. You can't fix insolvency with liquidity. You can't print jobs. You can't lower rates when the problem is nobody can afford anything at ANY rate. JPMorgan is "privy to a spectrum of data," he says. Yeah, they're watching the American consumer maxed out on credit, savings depleted, working three gig jobs to pay rent. They see corporations borrowing to buy back stock while laying off thousands… "We just have to wait and see…” Dimon says… No…, Dimon gets to wait and see from his $39 million salary perch. The rest of America is already seeing. They're seeing grocery bills doubled, rent skyrocketing, and fake job postings… In fact, these postings are faker than the employment numbers. The economy isn't "weakening" - it's been a zombie for 17 years… We've just been Weekend at Bernie's-ing it with printed money and fake statistics. And then we get called conspiracy theorists for pointing out their bullshit… So, let’s try again to put this into perspective… The largest bank CEO in America, with access to more economic data than the Fed, just appeared on CNBC to say, "I don't know" about a recession. When Jamie Dimon plays dumb, keep your eye on the door... This market continues to charge upward thanks to… Michael Howell said today that we have just seen new records for global liquidity at $184.6 trillion, another reminder that the markets aren’t accurately forecasting economic outcomes. We are flopping around with our economy right now because of expansions linked to Treasury policies and Federal Reserve support. Bond volatility is lower… because of a quiet form of fiscal repression…
And the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank aren’t tightening at the levels that people believed they would… Eventually, all of this will go the opposite direction, and people will play dumb. Including Dimon, who will fail to acknowledge that we’ve been engaging in financial engineering since 2008… ensuring K-shaped recoveries that make the Manhattan crowd richer while small businesses struggle, and the only job gains come from the healthcare sector, which is government-adjacent… When this implodes, JPMorgan will get bailed out again or they’ll get to buy some other struggling bank for 80% of the tangible book value. They'll buy more failed banks with government guarantees. Jamie will get another raise for "navigating challenging times." And they'll revise the numbers again in a year to show it was even worse than we thought. The economy isn't weakening, Jamie. It's been on life support, and companies like JPMorgan have been charging fees to keep the ventilator running. Investors… prepare accordingly… Stay positive, Garrett Baldwin P.S. - Remember how everyone thought that the Fed was tightening? Well, JPM stock is up 24% this year… while the economy is "weakening." Isn’t finance wonderful? About Me and the Money Printer Me and the Money Printer is a daily publication covering the financial markets through three critical equations. We track liquidity (money in the financial system), momentum (where money is moving in the system), and insider buying (where Smart Money at companies is moving their money). Combining these elements with a deep understanding of central banking and how the global system works has allowed us to navigate financial cycles and boost our probability of success as investors and traders. This insight is based on roughly 17 years of intensive academic work at four universities, extensive collaboration with market experts, and the joy of trial and error in research. You can take a free look at our worldview and thesis right here. Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.
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