| | | | Tesla Earnings Preview
First, don’t miss today’s Daily Chart Setup trade idea down lower in this newsletter.
Tesla (TSLA) reports earnings after the close today. Let's break down what to expect and what might go wrong, and…
Come join me as we dive in and see what’s moving!
Plus, as always, we have stocks popping and dropping so come find out what is moving this morning as I look for stocks and do some live premarket analysis on SPX, SPY, NDX, QQQ, Russell, IWM and other stocks that are potential plays for the day.
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The 99% Rule: My Statistical Framework for Timing Options on Market Roadmap Trades
If you’re new around here, we give a free trade idea each and every day that one fires off… which is most days. So let’s discuss how I structure these trades.
One of the biggest mistakes I see traders make with options is picking arbitrary expiration dates. They'll grab a 30-day contract because it's cheap, or maybe a 90-day because it feels safe. But there's no math behind those choices — just guesswork and hope.
After years of tracking my Market Roadmap pattern trades, I decided to actually crunch the numbers on trade duration. What I found changed how I approach every single options position.
The data revealed something incredibly useful…
The average Market Roadmap trade completes in about 45 candles on a daily chart. Not trading days — actual candles on the chart. But averages only tell half the story. What I really needed was the statistical spread to know when these trades truly finish.
That's where standard deviation comes in. The standard deviation for these trades works out to 35 candles. When you calculate three standard deviations and add them to the average, you get a critical number: 150 candles, which translates to roughly 210 calendar days, or about seven months.
These same numbers apply to all time frames, regardless of the number of candles in the pattern.
Here's why that matters…
This seven-month window covers 99% of all Market Roadmap trades. Only 1% run longer than that. Think about what that means for your options strategy — if you're buying contracts with at least seven months until expiration, you're giving yourself enough runway for things to play out.
How I Actually Use This Framework
When I'm positioning for a Market Roadmap setup, I know exactly what I'm doing with time frames now. If I want to play options and avoid running out of time, I'm looking seven months out.
Sure, you can trade shorter time frames if you're willing to take on more risk or if you think the move will happen faster. You can also just buy shares and eliminate time decay altogether.
But the beautiful thing about having real statistical backing is that it removes the guesswork. I'm not hoping my position has enough time — I know mathematically that it does.
I also lean heavily on win rates and profit factors when evaluating specific setups. Across tens of thousands of trades, the average win rate sits at 75% so anything above that tells me I'm looking at an outperformer.
For profit factor, I like to see numbers over 2.0, though 1.6 is solid and 1.2 is about average. Anything under 1.0 means you're losing more than you're making, and that's an automatic pass for me.
Why the Numbers Actually Matter
I didn't pull these stats out of thin air. This comes from tracking and verifying real trades over years of work. My publicly audited account shows year-to-date verified profits with a profit factor of 6.37 — meaning for every dollar I lose, I make $6.37 back.
That's what happens when you stop guessing and start using a mathematical framework that's actually tested against market reality.
If you're serious about improving your options game, start thinking in probabilities, not possibilities. Seven months covers nearly every trade. Use that knowledge.
Now scroll on down for today’s trade idea!
Now be sure to join me live at 9:15 a.m. ET for “Morning Monster,” my market-open livestream on YouTube!
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