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Don here...
Gianni opened today's session with a number that stopped me cold.
46%.
That's the percentage of market advisors who are bearish right now.
We hit new all-time highs last week in the S&P and Nasdaq. The Russell made fresh highs earlier this week.
And nearly half the advisory class thinks the market is going down.
The historical average for bearish sentiment sits around 31%.
This is extreme pessimism at market peaks.
In today's free session replay, you'll discover:
- Why this sentiment reading creates massive opportunity. After 80+ days above the 20-day moving average followed by three days below, the market rises 80% of the time one week later. This pattern has repeated for decades. The great momentum reset is happening right now.
- The currency market breakdown that changes everything. The dollar collapsed but oil went down. Crypto went down. Stocks went down. Only gold exploded higher. We're in a completely new macroeconomic regime where traditional correlations are broken. The Fed wants a weaker dollar and it's creating tailwinds for specific sectors.
- Why technology strength during volatility proves the bull market isn't over. Semiconductors closed up today. Nvidia gained 1.5%. Micron hit new all-time highs. When growth sectors lead during market weakness, institutions aren't selling. They're rotating within tech, not abandoning it.
- The Treasury market explosion that telegraphs what's coming. The two-year Treasury just made its biggest move in months. Powell announced the end of quantitative tightening. Rate cuts start in less than two weeks. The bond market sees massive Fed accommodation coming and it creates specific opportunities.
- Why professional money managers can't beat the market anymore. Only 22% of active funds are beating the index this year. They have more resources than ever but keep losing. They're focused on gathering assets instead of making money. Meanwhile heavily shorted stocks are crushing the market because focused strategies actually work.
- The crypto divergence that signals something big is forming. Bitcoin broke below its September low. But Ethereum held support and refused to break. Do you see this kind of strength at the beginning of bear markets or at the start of new rallies? The answer determines whether you're positioned correctly.
The data Gianni presented is striking.
You can cut the tension in this market with a knife. One day of sharp selling and suddenly everyone thinks it's over.
But here's what actually happened.
The biggest crypto liquidation in history occurred last Friday. Accounts blew up because people were leveraged to the gills. Desperate traders taking maximum risk.
That's capitulation. That's how bottoms form.
Not through calm, rational selling. Through panic and forced liquidation.
Meanwhile semiconductors are making new highs. Technology is leading. Bonds are breaking out. The Fed is accommodating.
The professionals are 46% bearish at all-time highs because they missed the move and they're terrified of being wrong again.
This is the environment where fortunes get made.
When sentiment is this extreme. When positioning is this one-sided. When the technical setup says one thing and the fear says another.
Gianni's been through enough cycles to recognize the pattern.
The great momentum reset is complete. The conditions are set for the next leg higher.
→ Watch Gianni's complete session to understand the sentiment extreme, sector rotation patterns, and why this setup favors continued strength
To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
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