Tiny Moves, Big Swings — Why I'm Still Testing the Last 10 Minutes

Another SPX experiment, what it taught me, and why I keep my real money with rules

If one solid trade opportunity per week is great… What would you say about 4 every week? As I told you earlier this week, I don’t hide the messy parts. Yesterday I went back to the end-of-day SPX experiment I’ve been exploring — trying to capture a tiny move in the last few minutes that can swing a vertical spread from almost worthless to near max value. It’s the kind of thing that looks obvious on a chart after the fact… and very different when you’re placing the order in real time. The Experiment • Why SPX? It’s a high-priced index with $5-wide strikes. That means even a very small late-day push can flip a tight vertical from out-of-the-money to in-the-money — fast. • How small is “small”? We’re talking fractions of a percent. A nudge you might ignore at noon can matter a lot at 3:50 p.m. with minutes to go. • What I tried: A simple $5-wide call vertical meant to catch a quick burst. I had a specific price in mind. I didn’t get filled. Minutes later, that same ticket would’ve shown a triple-digit percentage gain — without me. What That Teaches • The math is real. On a high-priced underlying with narrow strikes, a tiny move near the close can swing the payout wildly. If you’re ever curious why these “last-10-minute” trades tempt people, that’s why. • But execution is the choke point. You have to get the fill, and you have to accept that a one-minute chart move can turn a would-be winner into a zero. That’s the entire trade. If I can’t turn that into repeatable rules, it stays in the lab. • Know your buckets. I keep “experiments” small and separate from my core trades. If I haven’t built the rules — entry logic, timing, exit, and sizing — I don’t scale it up. The goal of the lab is to learn, not to impress. • No plan, no trade. Clicking faster is not risk management. If you can’t define the exit up front — so it can be executed without you babysitting — you’re relying on adrenaline, not a process. Where I Put Real Capital When I’m putting bigger money to work — especially in choppy sessions — I go back to what’s served me for years: rules-based, defined-risk setups with pre-planned exits. I don’t need to forecast where the chart will end up at the last minute of the day. I want a structure where a modest move inside a clear window is enough, and where a Good-’Til-Canceled target can take me out the moment price tags it. That’s how I turn more normal price paths into booked wins and keep the stress low. None of this means I’ll stop experimenting. Experiments are how I find the next idea worth systematizing. But there’s a big difference between “promising on paper” and “ready to scale.” Until I can write the rules for the last-10-minutes approach — signals, timing, fills, exits — it remains a small sandbox project. Bottom line Tiny moves can create big swings right before the bell. That’s interesting — and it’s exactly why I keep coming back to this experiment. But for day-to-day trading, I stick with the defined-risk, rules-first setups that don’t require me to guess the final minute like this overnight options trade. That was another one that took me months of trial and error until I finally got it right. But once I cracked the code, the results have been spectacular. — Nate Tucci P.S. See more experiments and market insights like this — plus much more every weekday at 10am and 3:30pm Eastern on Opening Playbook & Closing Playbook. Don't miss it!

If one solid trade opportunity per week is great… What would you say about 4 every week? As I told you earlier this week, I don’t hide the messy parts. Yesterday I went back to the end-of-day SPX experiment I’ve been exploring — trying to capture a tiny move in the last few minutes that can swing a vertical spread from almost worthless to near max value. It’s the kind of thing that looks obvious on a chart after the fact… and very different when you’re placing the order in real time. The Experiment Why SPX? It’s a high-priced index with $5-wide strikes. That means even a very small late-day push can flip a tight vertical from out-of-the-money to in-the-money — fast. How small is “small”? We’re talking fractions of a percent. A nudge you might ignore at noon can matter a lot at 3:50 p.m. with minutes to go. What I tried: A simple $5-wide call vertical meant to catch a quick burst. I had a specific price in mind. I didn’t get filled. Minutes later, that same ticket would’ve shown a triple-digit percentage gain — without me. What That Teaches The math is real. On a high-priced underlying with narrow strikes, a tiny move near the close can swing the payout wildly. If you’re ever curious why these “last-10-minute” trades tempt people, that’s why. But execution is the choke point. You have to get the fill, and you have to accept that a one-minute chart move can turn a would-be winner into a zero. That’s the entire trade. If I can’t turn that into repeatable rules, it stays in the lab. Know your buckets. I keep “experiments” small and separate from my core trades. If I haven’t built the rules — entry logic, timing, exit, and sizing — I don’t scale it up. The goal of the lab is to learn, not to impress. No plan, no trade. Clicking faster is not risk management. If you can’t define the exit up front — so it can be executed without you babysitting — you’re relying on adrenaline, not a process. Where I Put Real Capital When I’m putting bigger money to work — especially in choppy sessions — I go back to what’s served me for years: rules-based, defined-risk setups with pre-planned exits. I don’t need to forecast where the chart will end up at the last minute of the day. I want a structure where a modest move inside a clear window is enough, and where a Good-’Til-Canceled target can take me out the moment price tags it. That’s how I turn more normal price paths into booked wins and keep the stress low. None of this means I’ll stop experimenting. Experiments are how I find the next idea worth systematizing. But there’s a big difference between “promising on paper” and “ready to scale.” Until I can write the rules for the last-10-minutes approach — signals, timing, fills, exits — it remains a small sandbox project. Bottom line Tiny moves can create big swings right before the bell. That’s interesting — and it’s exactly why I keep coming back to this experiment. But for day-to-day trading, I stick with the defined-risk, rules-first setups that don’t require me to guess the final minute like this overnight options trade. That was another one that took me months of trial and error until I finally got it right. But once I cracked the code, the results have been spectacular. — Nate Tucci P.S. See more experiments and market insights like this — plus much more every weekday at 10am and 3:30pm Eastern on Opening Playbook & Closing Playbook. Don't miss it!

ABOUT US:  We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Nate Tucci Trading provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Nate Tucci Trading are for your informational purposes only. Neither Nate Tucci Trading nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Nate Tucci Trading is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions.  Please visit https://prosperitypub.com/terms-conditions/ for our full Terms and Conditions. Unsubscribe This email was sent to penunggangbadai.moneyblog@blogger.com by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States Prosperity Pub

ABOUT US:  We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Nate Tucci Trading provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Nate Tucci Trading are for your informational purposes only. Neither Nate Tucci Trading nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Nate Tucci Trading is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions.  Please visit https://prosperitypub.com/terms-conditions/ for our full Terms and Conditions. Unsubscribe This email was sent to penunggangbadai.moneyblog@blogger.com by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States Prosperity Pub

Share on Facebook

Share on Twitter

Share on Google+

Share on LinkedIn

Subscribe to receive free email updates: