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Markets just closed. |
You're probably already thinking about tomorrow. |
Turkey. Family. Maybe a cold one. |
And look... you've earned it. |
But before you completely check out for the holiday... |
I need you to watch something. |
I recorded an emergency volatility briefing the other day. |
Hundreds of traders showed up live. |
And what I walked through... |
Expected moves, VIX futures, the exact trades I have on right now... |
Is exactly what I'm using to navigate the volatility we're seeing. |
Because while everyone's getting ready to tune out for turkey... |
The options market is telling a very different story. |
The $65 Black Friday Session Nobody's Ready For |
Here's what caught my attention. |
We had a $146 expected move this week. |
In just 3.5 trading days. |
Last week? $144 across FIVE full days. |
More volatility in less time. |
And Black Friday—the half-day session everyone assumes will be quiet? |
Still has $65 of movement priced in. |
On a HALF day. |
That should be a warning bell. |
Most people are going to miss it completely. |
They'll be at the mall. Or sleeping off turkey. |
But I'm telling you right now... |
The market doesn't care about your Black Friday shopping plans. |
The Call I Got in 2008 |
Look... I don't usually go down memory lane. |
But you need to understand something. |
I was managing an entire division at Thinkorswim in September 2008. |
768 people. |
And on a Sunday morning, I got a call. |
"Don... you better come to Chicago. It's gonna get real out there." |
I flew in that day. |
And I watched what happens when markets actually break. |
They don't just crash. |
They CHURN. |
Rally. Sell-off. Rally. Sell-off. |
Each move pulling in more retail money. |
Until everyone's trapped. |
Then... the real drop. |
Am I saying that's happening now? |
No. |
But the VIX futures are pointing to 21-22 through February. |
Expected moves are elevated. |
And retail keeps buying every dip |
I've seen this setup before. |
And it didn't end well. |
The Trade I'm Down 22% On (And Why I'm Not Worried) |
In this video, I'm gonna show you something most educators would never show. |
My actual positions. |
Right now, I have a Starbucks trade that's down 22%. |
Most people would hide that. |
But I'm not here to blow smoke. |
Here's why I'm not sweating it: |
I still have 17 days left. |
There's a 55% probability we touch my profit target at $82. |
And when we do? I'm out. Fully profitable. |
This is what I've been doing for 25 years. |
In-out spreads. |
You don't predict tops or bottoms. |
You position yourself. Define your risk. And let the volatility come to YOU. |
Rally. Sell-off. Rally. Sell-off. |
Eventually... it comes to your level. |
And in THIS market? |
It's coming fast. |
The Spreadsheet I Probably Shouldn't Share |
During yesterday's call, I did something I rarely do. |
I pulled up my full trading spreadsheet. |
Every trade I've sent you this year. |
Every. Single. One. |
I even highlighted the LOSSES. |
SPX butterfly? Lost 100%. |
Another one? Lost 100%. |
I'm not hiding them. |
Because here's what matters: |
If you followed every alert I sent with just one-lot trades... |
Never risking more than $200-$300 per position... |
You'd be up over $2,000 for the year. |
Real trades. Real results. Real spreadsheet. |
You don't have to be perfect. |
You just need the right strategy. |
The Black Friday Deal (That I Swore I'd Never Bring Back) |
Alright... here's the thing. |
It's our 10-year anniversary at TheoTrade. |
And people have been BEGGING us to bring back our Black Friday deal. |
Last time we ran it, my inbox got flooded for months. |
I swore I wouldn't do it again. |
But... here we are. |
Pay $799 for a full year of TheoTrade. |
Get that $799 BACK in credit. |
Use it on anything. Scanners. Bootcamps. Ghost Prints. Golden Setups. Whatever. |
You're basically getting a full year of access... |
PLUS $799 to spend however you want. |
First 500 people only. |
Ends Black Friday at midnight. |
And look... I'm not gonna hard-sell you on this. |
If you've been thinking about joining TheoTrade... |
Or if you want live guidance through this volatility... |
This is the time. |
Watch This Before You Go Offline |
You're about to check out for the next 36+ hours. |
Turkey. Family. Football. |
And you should. |
But before you completely unplug... |
Watch this video. |
Because what I'm seeing for Black Friday... and the weeks after... |
Could be the difference between staying intact... or getting caught off-guard. |
Watch My Full Black Friday Volatility Briefing Here |
It's about an hour. I ramble. I'm not polished. |
But if you want the truth about what I'm seeing... |
And the exact strategies I'm using right now... |
The Black Friday deal ends soon. |
Don't wait. |
To your success, |
Don Kaufman |
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