| | | | What the Heck Happened?!
First, don’t miss today’s Daily Chart Setup trade idea down lower in this newsletter.
Thursday's historic market reversal — where the S&P 500 went from up 1.4% to closing deep red — exposed the cracks in the AI bubble and crypto crash, revealing the circular investment schemes propping up Nvidia, OpenAI and the tech rally, plus four investment opportunities emerging from the chaos.
Come join me as we dive in and see what’s moving!
Plus, as always, we have stocks popping and dropping so come find out what is moving this morning as I look for stocks and do some live premarket analysis on SPX, SPY, NDX, QQQ, Russell, IWM and other stocks that are potential plays for the day.
— — —
How I Locked in 60% on Nvidia Earnings — and Why I Walked Away Before the Party Ended
I'm not gonna pretend my Nvidia (NVDA) earnings trade was some legendary 200% moonshot — it wasn't. But I did walk away with 60% gains in a single trade, and more importantly, I knew exactly when to exit.
Here's how it went down: I bought options at $3, watched the setup unfold exactly as predicted, and closed them out at $5 when the market opened and immediately started turning red. That early warning was all I needed to punch out and call it a day.
The real story here isn't just the gains — it's how predictable this trade was from the start, thanks to one indicator that most traders overlook.
When the MMM Draws the Exact Boundaries
Before Nvidia reported, I plotted the market maker move (MMM) on my chart. This indicator shows where the smart money — the people who actually run the market — think the stock will stay during the earnings event. They've already priced the options based on these expectations, and it's unlikely the stock breaks out of that range before expiration.
And you know what? NVDA stayed right in between the uprights, just like the indicator predicted.
The stock ran up to about 198, hit the top of the expected move, then bounced back down to the middle. The MMM laid out the boundaries, and price respected them almost perfectly.
One more detail stood out: premium stayed elevated even with one day left. The MMM still showed a $6 to $6.50 range despite half the time already burning off. That signaled that volatility was still high and the market wasn't done pricing in risk.
Why There Were No Real Surprises Left
Nvidia reported late in the big tech cycle, which meant there were no real surprises left.
They beat on everything and guided that they're sold out of everything they can make for the next six months. But we already knew where everybody spent their money and how much they spent.
The other big tech companies had already reported their capital expenditures, so Nvidia's numbers were effectively priced in.
When everyone already knows the story, upside surprise is limited — and that's exactly what played out. The stock moved, but it stayed within the expected range because the market had already accounted for the major drivers.
That's why I got concerned when we opened and immediately turned red. I didn't need to wait around to see if it would reverse. I had my 60% gain, the setup had played out, and the early price action signaled that the easy money was already made.
So I closed the trade at $5, moved on, and didn't look back.
Sometimes the best trades aren't about being greedy and squeezing every last penny out of a move — they're about recognizing when the setup has run its course and taking profits while they're still available.
Now be sure to join me live at 9:15 a.m. ET for “Morning Monster,” my market-open livestream on YouTube!
| | | | |
|
|
0 Response to "How I Locked in 60% on Nvidia Earnings — and Why I Walked Away Before the Party Ended"
Post a Comment