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Dear Fellow Traveler: My wife is apparently convinced that if she presses the gas a little harder, somehow all of the cars on the Capitol Beltway outside D.C. will part like some biblical sea… As I read this laptop, I can feel the car bobbing back and forth between 65 miles per hour and down to 30 and back again. That will be the next 25 minutes of my life… Then… five more hours through Virginia and into North Carolina. I used to live down in Washington, D.C., although I never really had to drive these roads… I must say, our tax money has provided an incredibly smooth passage for all of the people working and living down here… Express roads, no potholes, and enough people driving like electricity through a lamp plug… I’m reminded of my philosophy of why I came to D.C. in the first place… back in 2009, that was the start of Quantitative Easing and a wall of government largess that never went away. When a major financial crisis hits, move to where the politicians will borrow at the tilt and then give it away to all of their friends, donors, and interests. And if you want to see the impact of money printing, go to the Wharf on the south side of the city, looking out toward National Harbor, Maryland. That area looks nothing like it did in 2009… I imagine the property speculators made a complete fortune… This place definitely didn’t run out of money… What else do I think as this road stretches on? No. 2: Taking to the Skies…Our other option was to fly to North Carolina. I’ll take driving this year… the dogs got to come along, and the drive is just short enough to offset all of the other challenges… Oh… and we don’t have to really dress up… U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy asked Americans to “say please and thank you to our pilots and to our flight attendants” and to dress “with some respect” when traveling… Duffy wants to “Bring Civility Back” in air travel… Naturally, that set off some people on social media… How dare he ask for civility? Look… I’m on board… I always say thank you to pilots and flight attendants because I know for a fact I can’t fly a plane… and… well… these people have some of the most stressful jobs in the world… not even during the holidays… But I do find that airlines' cost-cutting and the experience of the day have made air travel far less enjoyable. I always used to wear a suit when I flew… get there early… have a martini and tell people that I was “taking to the skies.” The only time I really focus on my dress while on a plane now is when I travel abroad… Air travel seemed like a lot more fun in the 1960s and 1970s… which is a reminder that I’m 44 years old… and 60 years past my prime… No. 3: Achievement UnlockedIt was a week ago that many people said the market crash was coming. I was certainly cautious… even warning about the possibility that we would reenter a 1% pattern (and in some ways, we did with an abbreviated move…) But the two things that aided my “Squeeze” statement on Sunday night were pretty basic… and a reminder: if we start to fear the worst, look for two things… Policy accommodation (which came out of Japan)… and an uptick in insider buying on the aggregate to insider selling. That latter ratio was the highest it’s been since April… the last time that we had people worried about the Great Depression. Crisis averted for now… as we’re currently Green on our signal… we really need to see volume pick up in December to make this sustainable… And we have to keep a close eye on the data… No. 4: Tim Will Need to Explain This One…As you know, we’ve added another letter to our Substack platform to help us prepare for our 2026 expansion. That’s the Insider Buying Report. Basically, I’m looking at all of the significant Insider Buys each day on Form 4 documents… separating a lot of the noise… and looking for things that actually matter… Well, this morning… we had a massive insider purchase in the banking sector… Central Bancompany (CBC)… thanks to an IPO.
There are a lot of people putting a lot of their own money into this bank… So… as I begin my annual Thanksgiving conversations with Tim Melvin… I’ll ask him about CBC and some of the other sizeable purchases we’ve seen this week… As always, check out his Substack… right here. And Finally… It’s That Time of YearNow that it’s the final week of November… the stock market calls are starting… JPMorgan said that it sees the S&P 500 hitting 7,500 with the possibility of 8,000 or more if the Fed keeps slashing interest rates… I’ve long found the practice of forecasting to be futile… so much so that I wrote my 2025 outlook with a focus on five different scenarios. Interestingly… four of the five scenarios actually happened… at different milestone points. The only thing left now is to close the year at 7,100 on the back of… stimulus from a central bank... Could Japan be that catalyst? And the Fed’s supportive policies… We’ll see. I don’t try to forecast… I try to react… and continue to focus on the importance of liquidity, momentum, policy, and insider activity… and the equities that benefit most from passive and leverage flows that could get us to these levels… I’ll stick with that framework… until something significant changes in the underlying structure of the financial system. I’m not convinced that a new Fed chair will do anything different than what’s already been happening for 17 years… I’ll circle back at the end of the year with my full outlook and various scenarios for readers of The Capital Wave Report, our paid version of this Substack... Stay positive, Garrett Baldwin About Me and the Money Printer Me and the Money Printer is a daily publication covering the financial markets through three critical equations. We track liquidity (money in the financial system), momentum (where money is moving in the system), and insider buying (where Smart Money at companies is moving their money). Combining these elements with a deep understanding of central banking and how the global system works has allowed us to navigate financial cycles and boost our probability of success as investors and traders. This insight is based on roughly 17 years of intensive academic work at four universities, extensive collaboration with market experts, and the joy of trial and error in research. You can take a free look at our worldview and thesis right here. Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.
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