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Just For You

The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break Out

Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025.

Key Points

TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.

The macroeconomic and retail conditions are ideal for The TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX), as reflected in its results and stock price.

Macroeconomic headwinds that have shifted consumer habits and pressured many major retailers have created a favorable environment for off-price operators like The TJX Companies, enabling the company to offer attractive value to still-resilient consumers.

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The takeaway: industry-leading Q3 growth, outperformance and improved full-year guidance — despite what is likely to be cautious Q4 guidance — support the view that the uptrend in TJX shares is expected to continue.

TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year

The TJX Companies had a strong quarter, reporting revenue of $15.12 billion, up 7.0% year-over-year (YOY) and 175 basis points above consensus. Strength was driven by a 5% systemwide comp, broad gains across divisions and a 1.1% increase in store count.

TJX Canada led the way with 8% YOY growth, followed by a 6% gain in the core Marmaxx divisions, 5% in HomeGoods, and 3% internationally. All segments posted net growth that contributed to margin expansion.

Margins were also notable. Revenue leverage and a favorable selling environment improved gross margin by 100 basis points, combined with operating gains that drove leveraged earnings growth. GAAP EPS rose 12%, helped by share repurchases that reduced the average share count by about 1.3% for the quarter.

TJX provided Q4 guidance that was slightly below some expectations; however, the shortfall is minor versus MarketBeat's consensus and does not detract from the strong year-to-date performance.

As a result, full-year guidance was raised: the company now expects comparable-store growth of roughly 4% and FY EPS at a low-end $4.63 — about a nickel above consensus. Given TJX's historically conservative guidance, actual results may again outperform when Q4 results are reported in January.

Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher

Capital returns are a key driver of TJX's stock. The company pays a dividend and repurchases shares, shrinking the share count each year. The dividend is around the S&P 500 average, but it is well-covered and growing.

With a payout ratio below 40%, annual dividend increases are likely to continue for this Dividend Aristocrat. Excluding the COVID-19 pause, TJX has increased its distribution annually for nearly 30 years and could sustain a double-digit compound annual growth rate for the foreseeable future.

TJX's balance sheet shows no red flags and offers reasons to own the stock. Q3 highlights include higher current and total assets — driven by increased cash and inventory — partly offset by modest liability increases and lower debt. Shareholders' equity rose nearly 15%, leverage remains low, and the company is effectively net cash, with long-term debt around 0.2x equity.

Analysts Trends Drive TJX Stock to New Highs

Analyst sentiment aligns with the fundamental and technical outlook: coverage and sentiment have firmed, 25 analysts rate the stock a Buy, and price targets have trended higher. The analysts' trends support the bullish case.

While consensus considers the stock fairly valued after Q3, the trend points toward the high end of the range — near $170 — implying roughly 17% upside from mid-November levels.

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