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5 Signs to Watch for the Top?
First, don’t miss today’s Daily Chart Setup trade idea down lower in this newsletter.
This week's flow show by BofA's Michael Hartnett defines five signs to watch for the top to be in. Some of these triggers are already in place, and others are yet to come or maybe we never pullback again.
Come join me as we dive in and see what’s moving!
Plus, as always, we have stocks popping and dropping so come find out what is moving this morning as I look for stocks and do some live premarket analysis on SPX, SPY, NDX, QQQ, Russell, IWM and other stocks that are potential plays for the day.
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The Potential Nvidia Retrace No One's Watching
Sometimes the most important price action happens when nobody's really watching.
I've been tracking Nvidia (NVDA) as it climbed toward a key $212 target last week, and something significant happened. The stock came within two pennies of that level — close enough that for all intents and purposes, it tagged the target.
Now, you might be thinking…
So what? It hit a target. That's good, right?
Well, here's the thing — when the market's biggest company tags a major resistance level like this, it sets up potential for a larger correction. And that's exactly what we need to be careful about right now.
Why This Target Matters More Than Most
Let me put this in perspective for you. Look at how long it took Nvidia to grind through the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level on its way up. It wasn't quick. It wasn't easy. These major levels don't just get blown through without some back-and-forth.
Now that we've tagged this next target at $212, we could see this take much longer to grind through. Or — and this is the part that should have your attention — we might need a bigger correction before the stock can come back and break through convincingly.
I'm not saying Nvidia can't keep climbing. It could certainly just keep blowing and going. But trading is about putting the probabilities in your favor, and the probabilities have shifted now that we've reached this level.
What This Means
When you're dealing with a company this size — remember, we're talking about the biggest company in the market — its movements create ripples everywhere else.
A consolidation or pullback in Nvidia — which was down to $202 by Friday — doesn't happen in a vacuum.
The smart play here is recognizing that we've reached a decision point. Either Nvidia powers through this resistance without much fuss, or it needs to work off some of the gains before making another serious run higher.
I've learned over the years that when a stock tags a major target level this precisely, you don't chase it...
You wait. You watch. You let it prove it can either hold and push through, or you prepare for the retracement that often follows these moments.
That's the edge — knowing when to be aggressive and when to be patient. Right now, with Nvidia essentially hitting my target, patience is the smarter bet.
Now be sure to join me live at 9:15 a.m. ET for “Morning Monster,” my market-open livestream on YouTube!
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