We had a bullish week even after Friday’s sell-off, so Senior Strategist Roger Scott and I sat down Monday morning for our new weekly session to discuss all things macro — The Big Picture With Jeff & Roger…
So what’s the “big picture” theme on Wall Street right now?
The market wants to go up and it feels bullish, in my opinion, and is looking for glimmers of hope to ignite a rally. What does Wall Street need to give it that glimmer of hope?
The Fed meets this week to announce its latest interest rate target. The market is pricing in a hike of 75 basis. If that happens, that will put the benchmark rate at 2.25%. The BIG thing the market wants to know right now is that the Fed will stop raising rates around 3%, and not go to 5% or even higher...
So if the Fed says it believes raising rates is starting to work, inflation is getting under control and it doesn’t believe it will have to raise too much further...
One aspect of the markets in 2022 that’s different from the past five years is that when Wall Street used to rally off lows, volatility would collapse… And you wouldn’t have a big drawdown for weeks or even months at a time.
We’re in the midst of the first full trading week following the Fourth of July holiday, and there’s a lot going on in the markets — earnings, inflation data, COVID-19 starting back up again…
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