What Tonight's Election Means for the Market (and Investors) By tomorrow morning, much of the uncertainty overhanging Wall Street and Main Street will finally disappear. At least, that's the hope. But there's a very real possibility we may not know who won the presidential election right away. If it's close, like the polls say, then we may have to wait until all the ballots are counted. And that's before we even consider the possibility of a contested election... When judges and lawyers get involved, the timeline is anyone's best guess. As I recently discussed during my "Day-After Summit" with Freeport Society's Charles Sizemore, we could see a nasty bout of volatility in the market until the dust settles. So, in today's Market 360, I want to discuss where things stand – and why this election matters for investors. I'll also tell you more about how you can best prepare – and even set yourself up to profit – from the potential chaos before the results start coming in tonight. Where Things Stand Now As of right now, Real Clear Politics has Donald Trump winning the presidential election with 287 Electoral College votes. Remember, a candidate needs 270 Electoral College votes to win.
The betting markets seem to agree. Bespoke Investment Group gives President Trump a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris, with a 58.5% probability of winning the election. Republicans are heavily favored to gain control of the Senate, while the Democrats have a razor-thin edge to retake control of the House of Representatives.  So, we could end up with a divided government when all is said and done. Interestingly, the "Blue Wall" manufacturing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which traditionally vote for the Democratic Party, will ultimately determine the winner tonight. Real Clear Politics has Trump winning Pennsylvania but losing Michigan and Wisconsin. The reality is that the U.S. manufacturing sector has been in a recession for over two years. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) recently announced that its manufacturing index declined to 46.5 in October, down from 47.2 in September. Any reading below 50 signals contraction. Notably, 11 of the 16 industries surveyed reported contraction in October. So, the big manufacturing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will certainly keep this in mind as they head to the polls today. If a new presidential administration can help the manufacturing sector expand via tariffs against unfair competition overseas, lower interest rates (with the Federal Reserve's help) and cheaper energy prices that give the U.S. a natural advantage compared to Europe, Japan and other competitors… then, in theory, the U.S. should experience a manufacturing boom.
Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst... Hopefully, by midweek, all of the uncertainty surrounding the election will finally be lifted. I certainly hope this will be the case. And regardless of who wins, I certainly wish any new president the best. You may recall the last time we had a significant peace dividend was in the 1990s when Bill Clinton was in the Oval Office after communism fell and the USSR broke up. Then, the dot-com boom took off, and we enjoyed a long period of prosperity – and generational returns in the stock market. But despite what we hope, the reality is that we have to plan for the worst. Because the more people panic in the chaos after the election – especially if the results drag out for days, weeks or months... The crazier and more out of whack the will markets get. But if you watch my Day-After Summit with Charles, you'll be prepared. Because it's times like these when agile traders and investors stand to make the most. To help get you started, Charles is sharing his post-election pick for FREE. It's historically gone up 100% of the time right after presidential elections between the specific dates he shares in the briefing. Go here to check out "The Day-After Summit" now. My publisher will be taking this special briefing offline at midnight tonight, so time is running out to watch it and get Charles' free pick. Sincerely, | .png)
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