Buying a Main Street Renaissance BY ANDY SWAN, co-founder, LikeFolio I don’t know about you, but this 2025 stock market roller coaster is giving me some serious whiplash. Navigating volatile conditions like these can be a daunting task for the everyday investor. It requires taking a step back – and a deep breath. Trying to time exact tops and bottoms is impossible. Positioning correctly for long-term success is not. The key is owning assets that can emerge stronger once the dust settles. Easier said than done, I know. Short-term price swings create doubt, even when the underlying thesis remains intact. This is where that step back comes in handy: We’ve seen this same pattern play out before. Investors who hesitated during past periods of volatility – whether in Tesla’s (TSLA) early years or the internet’s expansion – missed the explosive moves to the upside. Those who focused on long-term value creation rather than short-term noise were the ones who benefited. We’re here to make sure you’re in the winning camp this time around. At LikeFolio, our edge comes from understanding consumer behavior – what “real Main Street people” are doing – before it becomes news on Wall Street. While others focus on the news of the day, we’re tracking actual consumer engagement and spending behavior in real time. Our Data Engine works 24/7, 365 days a year analyzing web traffic patterns, app usage, social media activity, and executive commentary to identify major consumer trends as they form. This approach helps us anticipate future demand and growth prospects for publicly traded companies ahead of the market. LikeFolio data was made for moments like this. We cut through the noise to find the high-quality companies experiencing robust consumer demand while their stock prices decline, giving you an opportunity to get in before the crowd. When Wall Street expects one thing but activity on Main Street is telling us another, this is where the upside becomes truly exceptional. And these two divergence opportunities are setting up for explosive profit potential… | Recommended Link | | | | According to this billion-dollar fund manager, AI is way more advanced than most people realize… Thanks to a radical new development, folks who aren’t positioned correctly are about to get blindsided. Click here for his urgent AI warning. |  | | No. 1: Robinhood Markets (HOOD) At this time last month, Robinhood Markets (HOOD) was riding to 52-week highs on an outstanding earnings report featuring 700% year-over-year growth in crypto trading revenues – and Earnings Season Pass members were banking a 109% profit on a bullish Coin Flip trade. Fast-forward 30 days or so, and HOOD shares have plummeted more than 40% as economic uncertainty weighs on fintech and brokerage stocks. Some are worried about Robinhood being able to sustain its crypto-driven revenue growth. The company delivered an earth-shattering 700% surge in crypto transaction revenues while Bitcoin (BTC) was racing to – and beyond – $100,000. But Bitcoin is faltering with the rest of the market. Regulatory issues are also coming to light. In January, Robinhood reached a $45 million settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission, admitting it failed to properly report certain trading and suspicious activities, did not properly comply with short-sale rules, and was not accurately maintaining records. Wall Street didn’t seem fazed by this development. Shortly after, HOOD was featured in several bullish analyst reports, including landing a spot on Morgan Stanley’s “Financials’ Finest” list. And it went on to hit those 52-week highs I mentioned. Late last week, however, Robinhood agreed to a separate $29.75 million settlement with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority over similar misconduct and regulatory failures. These could weigh on HOOD in the near term. But LikeFolio data reveals an accelerating trend the market hasn’t priced in. Retirement and Deposits Are Growing Robinhood stock is trading as if the company is still dependent on meme-stock speculation and unsustainable crypto volumes. What they’re missing is that the company’s expanding IRA and equity lending businesses are building recurring, less volatile revenue streams. Robinhood’s IRA product is gaining traction, creating a long-term asset base that stabilizes revenue and offsets the trading-dependent narrative. Since its January 2023 rollout, Robinhood Retirement assets under custody have exploded to $13.1 billion (up 600% year-over-year in the fourth quarter alone). Robinhood is also tapping into opportunities in wealth and international brokerage. In November, it acquired TradePRM in a $300 million acquisition to enhance its offerings for Registered Investment Advisors in 2025. In addition, upcoming AI-powered financial advice services will start making personalized planning accessible to a new swath of users. Robinhood is building on its strengths and targeting new markets for growth in 2025. It plans to enter Asia and recently launched options trading for its U.K. customers, putting it in a retail market that is largely untapped by commission-free brokers. This sets up a low-cost customer acquisition funnel outside the U.S. that should not be overlooked. Robinhood is maturing its business model and opening up recurring revenue streams – the market just hasn’t realized it yet. Crypto Volatility Creates Opportunity The company’s crypto trading revenue remains variable, that’s a given. But Robinhood’s share of retail trading activity remains strong. Any resurgence in crypto speculation or Bitcoin-driven engagement would only serve as an upside driver – and crypto tailwinds are getting stronger. A couple weeks ago, President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, aiming to bolster American economic competitiveness by leveraging Bitcoin’s fixed supply and strategic advantages. The executive order also mandates exploring budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional Bitcoin without burdening taxpayers. The White House hosted its first-ever cryptocurrency summit that same week, bringing together industry leaders to discuss the future of digital assets in the U.S. economy. While some may not agree with Trump’s approach, the reality is this pro-Bitcoin president has thrust this digital asset into the spotlight. And consumer search trends suggest interest is holding strong: 
Source: Google Trends HOOD Demand Remains Resilient LikeFolio data reveals that unique visitors to Robinhood’s platform increased +50% year over year in January – a robust kick start in demand for 2025: 
In March, that traffic has held strong, indicating Robinhood has been able to hang onto its consumer momentum, even as its stock sells off: 
With crypto-driven engagement still strong, IRA deposits rising, and international growth accelerating, this pullback looks like an entry point – not an exit signal. No. 2: SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Since 2011, SoFi Technologies (SOFI) has gone from a pilot loan program at Stanford University to a one-stop financial services shop worth north of $12 billion. SoFi is a disruptor by nature. The first company to refinance federal and private student loans is now challenging traditional banking with a digital-first approach to old-school finance. The company offers a true “one-stop” financial services “Super App” where customers can manage multiple accounts, including loans, credit cards, mortgages, and more. SoFi’s journey hasn’t been without setbacks, of course. The COVID-era freeze on student loan payments gutted a key segment of SoFi’s business. Quarterly revenue from its student loan unit tanked from $2.4 billion pre-pandemic to a meager $525 million in the first quarter of 2023. Not only have those loan repayments resumed, but the SoFi of today is much more than just lending – it’s a digital wallet play of the future. And with shares down nearly 20% over the past month, the upside for investors just got that much bigger. While the market worries about SoFi’s conservative 2025 guidance and tapering loan growth, they’re missing the bigger picture. At LikeFolio, we see a disruptor strengthening its balance sheet, rapidly scaling non-lending revenues, and drawing in record members to its platform. This SOFI setup has all the markers of another compelling divergence opportunity that we can take advantage of… Loans Were Just the Start Despite headwinds in its lending business, SoFi’s non-lending segments like financial services and technology are scaling rapidly – and better positioning its balance sheet toward fee-based income. Partnerships with fintech innovator Galileo and digital banking platform Technisys helped SoFi grow its Technology Platform to 168 million total enabled accounts in 2024, a 15% increase from the year prior. This segment also contributed $395.2 million in net revenue for the year, up 12%, while adding $127 million in contribution profit. SoFi’s Technology Platform – along with its investment products and credit card offerings – sent non-lending revenue more than 50% higher year over year. These Financial Services and Tech Platforms now generate 47% of total revenue. Deposits, Profitability, and Engagement Are at All-Time Highs 2024 was a landmark year for SoFi that set it up for an even better 2025. The company ended 2024 with over 10 million members, growing its user base 34% year over year. It also added $10 billion in deposits, bringing its total deposit base to $26 billion. Strong direct deposit adoption is key to SoFi’s growth strategy – it provides a low-cost funding base for its lending arm while improving net interest margins. 2024 also marked SoFi’s first full year of GAAP profitability, achieving $499 million in net income and its fifth-consecutive profitable quarter. This is a company seeing record member expansion and deposit inflows – and demand is heating up in 2025. The Future of Finance Digital wallets are the payment method of the future, and SoFi is the digital payment play. Seventy-seven percent of Americans prefer digital banking over the traditional methods of the past, according to the American Bankers Association’s 2024 survey. That’s up from 71% reported in 2023. SoFi gives consumers what they crave with a digital platform that allows them to track all their finances in one easy-to-use place. We see this trend playing out in real time in our data. SoFi digital traffic accelerated to a three-year high in January: 
This kind of Main Street momentum is exactly what we look for when identifying the next big winners. It’s the X factor Wall Street doesn’t see coming – the LikeFolio edge in action. SoFi is expanding its reach across consumer finance. Its fee-based businesses are gaining traction. Lending margins are improving. And demand is soaring right along with it. We believe this pullback offers an opportunity to own a company reshaping financial services at an early stage of its profitability cycle. The Bottom Line Market pullbacks tend to shake out weak hands, but the best opportunities emerge when strong companies sell off for reasons that don’t change their long-term trajectory. LikeFolio’s approach is simple: We identify companies benefiting from undeniable macro trends, look for moments when market sentiment is out of sync with reality, and hand those opportunities straight to our MegaTrends subscribers in real-time profit alerts. Financials were one of the best-performing sectors on the market last time Donald Trump was in office, and these two fintech stocks are in the middle of a massive, secular shift. - Robinhood has transformed beyond a meme-stock casino, yet it continues to trade like one despite surging user growth and international expansion.
- SoFi is rapidly scaling its financial services and technology platform, yet the market is still treating it as just a lender.
Wall Street is still catching up, but this window won’t stay open forever. Will you be positioned before the crowd? Until next time, 
Andy Swan
Founder, LikeFolio | 
0 Response to "Buying a Main Street Renaissance"
Post a Comment