You're getting this newsletter Thursday morning, but I’m writing it Wednesday night, before jobless claims have come out.
Why? Because I’m on the road this week, teaching a trading class with Tom Busby in Jacksonville.
And while I won’t be live-trading through this one, you better believe I’ll be keeping an eye on the market.
All Eyes on Jobless Claims
With corporate and government layoffs piling up, Thursday’s morning jobless claims report could give us the first real signal of whether the job market is starting to crack.
We already got one warning sign — Wednesday’s ADP payrolls report was HALF of what economists expected.
If jobless claims today or the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report on Friday show more weakness, we could see a shift in market sentiment.
S&P and Gold Are Bouncing — But Is It Real?
Both the S&P 500 and gold have been rebounding off their recent lows, but the big question is whether this rally has legs or if it’s just a relief bounce before another downturn.
- The S&P 500 is climbing after hitting new lows, but whether buyers step in with conviction or fade into the weekend is still up in the air.
- Gold has been following a similar pattern — recovering after a selloff, but it needs confirmation before calling this anything more than a bounce.
With job data rolling in and the market in a fragile spot, today and tomorrow could give us a better idea of where things are headed next.
For now, I’ll be watching the numbers — and the market’s reaction.
Stay sharp,
—Geof Smith
P.S. Here’s one trade that has been remarkably consistent — month after month — no matter what’s going on in this market.
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