| DAILY ISSUE In Today’s Masters in Trading: Live  | What’s Moving the Markets This Week? | -
Crude Moves: Oil prices are trending higher as geopolitical tensions rise between the US and Iran. The oil markets are looking to rebound after a two-month, 17% slide, dropping from $80 to $66 a barrel from January to early March. -
All Eyes Are on the Fed: Will they confirm rate cuts are coming, or will markets get a harsh reality check? If Powell hints at rate cuts, we could see a rip higher… But if he digs in on “higher for longer,” brace yourself for some serious volatility.
The oil market is setting up a major opportunity for refiners, and if you know what to look for, you’re ahead of the game. Crude prices are on the move as tensions rise between the U.S. and Iran, stoking fears of disruptions in Middle Eastern oil flows. Meanwhile, China is injecting fresh stimulus into its economy, a move that could ramp up global energy demand just as we head into the summer driving season. Add in the ongoing sanctions in Europe still limiting global diesel supply, and the table is set for refiners to capitalize on tight product markets and widening margins. Over the past month, we’ve seen a push-and-pull in oil prices, but refiners don’t live or die by crude alone — they profit on the spread between crude and finished fuel products. And right now, that spread is surging. Goldman Sachs might be lowering its crude price targets, but they’re not calling for weakness in refined products. In fact, with diesel shortages persisting and gasoline seasonality kicking in, refiners are holding all the cards. Summer gasoline demand is heating up even as diesel supply remains constrained. With crude costs still manageable, refiners are perfectly positioned to profit in the months ahead. In today’s Masters in Trading Live at 11 a.m. ET, we’ll explore the key measures of refining profitability. A rising crack spread means bigger margins, bigger earnings, and bigger stock moves for names like Valero Energy Corp. (VLO), Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC), and Phillips 66 (PSX). The setup is here—the question is, are you in the trade? 
 | Chart of the Day: The Crack Spread Explodes | 
This chart is telling us one thing loud and clear — refiners are making a killing right now. That red line? That’s the crack spread, the number one metric that tells us how profitable refiners are. And look at that spike—it’s massive. That means refiners are buying crude at one price, turning it into gasoline and diesel, and selling it for way more. When the spread is high, refiners print money. When it shrinks, margins get squeezed. And right now, margins are exploding. If this crack spread stays elevated, the big refiners could have a lot more room to run.
 | Overheard in Discord | 
Huge shoutout to our Short-Term Options community for an incredible round of gains yesterday! From Eddie O locking in 72% on his Q’s and XSP calls to Wade and Kate M crushing their ODTE trades with gains as high as 400%, this is exactly why trading alongside a like-minded, disciplined group matters. When we trade together, we can stay nimble and keep our leverage in any market environment. There’s always power in numbers – so let’s keep the insights and great trades coming this week!
 | Got a Question? | Be sure to join me live on YouTube and ask me anything. It’s a great way to connect directly with our trading community and make sure you’re getting the insights you need to help build a deeper understanding of the markets.
 | 90-Day Trade Hall of Fame | | Cameco Corp. (CCJ) | Advanced Notice | 164% | 9 days | | Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) | Earnings Advantage | 156% | 47 days | | Shopify Inc. (SHOP) | Earnings Advantage | 117% | 37 days | | Lemonade Inc. (LMND) | Advanced Notice | 107% | 16 days | | Xponential Fitness Inc. (XPOF) | Short-Term Options | 76% | 4 days | Remember, the creative trader wins, |
Jonathan Rose
Founder, Masters in Trading Who is Jonathan Rose? With more than 25 years of market experience, including as a CME floor trader and partner of a proprietary trading firm, Jonathan is an investment pro and visionary who helped pioneer computer-based trading. Since his journey began in 1997, he's trained more than 100 professional traders and made millions in the market by leveraging highly-profitable options and equity trading strategies – typically reserved for Wall Street insiders. Today, Jonathan's mission at Masters in Trading is to help professional and retail investors alike by teaching them how to use these strategies successfully over the long term. To learn more about Jonathan and Masters in Trading, visit MastersinTrading.com. |
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