New tariffs from Trump roil the market (again)… the case for a bullish bounce… a key bearish line-in-the-sand… our experts are buying… a critical perspective This morning, President Trump ratcheted up the tariff war, ordering tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to be increased another 25%, taking the full duty to 50%. The policy goes into effect tomorrow morning. Here’s Trump on Truth Social explaining why: Based on Ontario, Canada, placing a 25% Tariff on “Electricity” coming into the United States, I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to add an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD. In response, Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatened to shut off electricity to U.S. customers. This is what trade wars look like. Before this morning’s news, stocks appeared to be attempting to form a base. After 30 minutes of trading, the S&P 500 was flat, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was modestly lower, and the Nasdaq Composite was up about 0.70%. But within minutes of Trump’s tariff announcement, all three major indexes fell into the red. As I write, the Nasdaq has clawed back to a small gain. Who knows where we’ll end the day? Stepping back, let’s look squarely at this volatility. What’s the potential for a bounce? How bad might it be if we keep falling? And how do our experts assess this pullback overall? Let’s begin with the bull case. Are we nearing technical exhaustion? Let’s begin by looking at the S&P 500’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator. For newer Digest readers, the RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the extent to which an asset is overbought or oversold. A reading over 70 suggests an asset is “overbought” (and likely poised to pull back as traders take profits) while a reading below 30 means it’s “oversold” (and poised for gains as bargain-hunters step in and buy). As I write Tuesday, the S&P’s RSI is 28 – officially “oversold.” As you’ll see below, in the last two years, there have been four times when it reached this general level. In each of those times, stocks jumped higher in the following days, though the ensuing bullishness had differing durations. 
This doesn’t guarantee that we’re in for a bounce, but it increases those odds. We get a similar takeaway from the S&P’s Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator. It reflects changes in a price trend’s strength, direction, momentum, and duration. It’s now at its lowest level since 2022’s bear market low. 
It’s hard for such extremes to remain for long. You might think of it like a rubber band. The greater this MACD (and RSI) stretches, the farther/faster the ensuing snapback rally often is when the tension eventually releases. So, if a reversion rally is in the cards, how high might we go? | Recommended Link | | | | Because according to 40 year Wall Street legend Louis Navellier… Nvidia is poised to ignite the next phase of the AI supercycle… Where they could announce a new breakthrough technology that is poised to affect nearly every aspect of our lives… But according to Louis, the media is missing out on the most important part of the story… The story of how one tiny small-cap company is positioned to be crucial to Nvidia’s AI reveal, thanks to its technology protected by 102 patents. To learn more about Nvidia’s first ever “Q Day”… And this tiny small-cap stock… CLICK HERE TO REGISTER FOR FREE |  | | The case for an 8%+ bounce To help us with this analysis, we’re going to master trader Jeff Clark. For newer Digest readers, Jeff is a market veteran with more than four decades of experience. In his service, Jeff Clark Trader, he profitably trades the markets regardless of direction – up, down, or sideways. Over the last few days, one of Jeff’s indicators has been flashing a “bull” signal. From Jeff this past Friday: The Volatility Index (VIX) just generated its third broad stock market “buy signal” of 2025. All three occurred within the last 10 days. The first two signals reversed immediately. So, bullish traders are hoping this third time will be the charm. As a quick reminder, VIX buy signals occur when the index closes above its upper Bollinger Band and then closes back inside the bands. Jeff notes that while this indicator’s track record is excellent, it’s not perfect. Sometimes, instead of rallying immediately after the indicator triggers, the stock market falls. This pushes the VIX above its upper Bollinger Band again, negating the buy signal. As Jeff just noted, the VIX Indicator has given us two false positives in the last two weeks. This is highly unusual. Back to Jeff: It is [incredibly rare] to get two failed VIX buy signals back-to-back – thereby setting the stage for a “triple” VIX buy signal. That is, however, what the market is set up for right now… When it happens, it leads to “V” shaped rallies. For example, last July/August we got a cluster of three VIX buy signals in about a two-week period. The first two signals failed. Following the third signal, though, the S&P 500 rallied 400 points (8%) in about 10 days. A similar move this time around would have the S&P 500 challenging the top of its recent trading range – near 6100 – by St. Patrick’s Day. Our hypergrowth expert Luke Lango just ran a study suggesting a bullish move could go even higher As usual, historical data and market history underpin Luke’s analysis. This time, he ran a study on the Nasdaq-100. Luke prefers the Nasdaq-100 because we live in a tech-based economy, and this index includes the world’s largest 100 tech companies. Luke evaluated what happened after the Nasdaq-100 closed below its 200-day moving average (MA), which it did earlier this week for the first time in more than a year. Here’s Luke: [The Nasdaq-100] has crossed below its 200-day moving average precisely 11 times before since 1990. All 11 times, the market was either on the cusp of a big rebound or big breakdown – and which way it went depended on how the market acted in the subsequent two weeks. Per Luke, if the Nasdaq-100 can remain within 4% of its 200-day MA, stocks always rebounded over the next 12 months, with average gains of over 25%. Given this, Luke issued five “buy” alerts in his service Innovation Investor yesterday. From Luke: We view the odds of an economic recovery as being significantly greater than the odds of an economic recession… And we therefore believe the odds of stocks soaring over the next year – and this being a great buying opportunity – as being significantly higher than the odds of stocks crashing over the next year. So… let’s get aggressive here. Regular Digest readers see me reference the following quote regularly, but this is a great time to highlight it. From billionaire Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates: In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable. But what happens if the Nasdaq-100 fails to hold within 4% of its 200-day MA? That brings us to the potential downside of this recent selloff. Let’s return to Luke: [In our case study analysis,] if the Nasdaq-100 didn’t play strong defense and fell more than 4% below its 200-day moving average over the subsequent two weeks, stocks always slumped into a bear market. This happened in early 1990 (right before the ’90s recession), mid-2000 (right before the dot-com crash), early 2008 (right before the 2008 financial crisis), and early 2022 (right before the inflation crash). As I write on Tuesday, the 200-day MA sits at 20,323 while the index trades at 19,452, which means it’s just a shade over 4% lower. We’re holding the line…barely. Clearly, we want to see some bullishness soon. | Recommended Link | | | | On January 27th, 2025, DeepSeek blindsided the tech world and Wall Street. More than $1 trillion dollars in market value vanished in 24 hours. And unstoppable tech giants suddenly looked vulnerable. But there’s a much more important DeepSeek story that others have missed entirely. And one Wall Street legend has been connecting the dots. DeepSeek isn’t just another AI company making headlines… but a signal of something much bigger coming to the American economy and stock market. And millions of Americans aren’t prepared for what’s ahead. Go here for the full story. |  | | But if this market continues dropping, let’s maintain perspective I’m in regular communication with many of InvestorPlace’s analysts… and I can tell you that, while cautious, they’re seeing opportunity. We just highlighted how Luke put his money where his mouth was yesterday, recommending five new stocks. He wasn’t the only one. On Friday, our global macro expert Eric Fry, editor of Fry’s Investment Report, made a new recommendation. Given the volatility, he wrote: Anyone who [buys] shares of [this recommendation] today might not be happy about that purchase one week from now, or even one month from now, but I believe they [will] be very happy about it one year from now. And we can throw legendary investor Louis Navellier into the mix. As we’ve been highlighting in recent days, Louis is holding a live event this Thursday at 1 p.m. Eastern to prep investors for Nvidia Corp.’s (NVDA) “Q-Day,” which takes place one week from Thursday. Here’s Louis explaining what’s behind the upcoming briefing: In the third week of March, we’re going to have the big NVIDIA Corporation annual conference – the developers conference. I expect Nvidia to announce a new breakthrough technology that could light a fire under the shares of one of its “Q” partners... a stock 1,000 times smaller than Nvidia. It’s my top quantum pick, a small-cap stock protected by 102 patents with close ties to NVIDIA. Though I don’t know all the details of Louis’ presentation, my hunch is that this broad market pullback has just made his preferred quantum stocks even more attractive from an entry valuation perspective. What I know for sure is that Louis has been banging the drum on this opportunity. To learn more about his event and register for free, click here. Finally, let’s wrap up with big-picture perspective For this, we’ll turn to InvestorPlace’s CEO, Brian Hunt. As longtime Digest readers know, beyond helming InvestorPlace, Brian is an accomplished trader/investor who loves teaching/writing about the topic. In 2022’s bear market, Brian wrote an essay that’s critical for investors to remember as markets sell off. I encourage you to read the entire piece right here. But to prevent us from running too long, I’ll excerpt its takeaway to wrap us up today: When the stock market goes through a big drop and your portfolio’s value is going lower and lower, it can be difficult to know what to do. It’s an emotional time and mistakes are common when we are feeling pressure. What about my retirement? My kid’s college education? My dreams of financial independence? … These declines – even if they are in the modest 15% range – will scare you. They will make you question the idea of owning stocks… During stock market corrections, I ask you to focus on what really matters: progress, transformational industry trends, creating value for others, and innovation. Remember that despite all the negative occurrences of the past 100 years, shareholders of innovative companies that serve their customers have made fortunes. It’s been the surest way to get rich in America for more than 100 years. It will be that way for at least 100 more. That’s why staying bullish on human progress and innovation is at the foundation of what we do at InvestorPlace. It’s also why, when our subscribers write in to ask if we have “bear market survival” plans, we send them this essay. Our “bear market survival” plan consists of [remembering the long-term strength of the stock market], thinking long-term, and looking to buy high-quality stocks at discount prices. Our “bear market survival” plan does not consist of selling stocks in a panic… It’s one of the most important milestones on the journey to mastering money. Have a good evening, Jeff Remsburg | 
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