Extreme Momentum (Live at 8:45 ET)

Take Me to Market Masters at 8:45 ET

Good morning:

We continue extreme momentum conditions across the board. Tech stocks (particularly semiconductors) have rallied hard after China and the United States delayed tariffs for another 90 days. With liquidity expanding, short-covering picking up, and trend following, the S&P 500 futures have now gained 1,000 points since hitting a low in early April. The patient investor was rewarded…

There were ways to see it coming—but most people aren't looking in the right place.

As I explained yesterday, a pattern emerged over the last few months that's been repeated on several occasions. A breakdown in momentum, a breakdown in buying pressure, high levels of insider buying, a policy shift, and a recovery.

This has happened multiple times since 2008.

Be sure to check out our replays to learn the pattern so that you can take full advantage the next time it happens. In fact, I think we have a good chance of a repeat later this year when the U.S. faces challenges in refinancing trillions in debt.

We'll discuss when we're live in 30 minutes.

Some of the best setups this year have shown up right before these inflection points.

Tune In, Tune Up

Momentum remains strong - in extreme breakout conditions. Everything from FedEx (FDX) to Phillips 66 (PSX), from First Solar (FSLR) to Diamondback (FANG) is moving much higher. I don't have many stocks breaking down - which always makes me a little cautious.

So… where should we turn our attention? We have to look at the individual sectors that continue to move higher. I'll walk you through what's happening at the sector level to help you find the names to trade around key technical levels.

Now What?

Well… the trade war is delayed for now.

But is that the last major policy fight we'll see this year?

Probably not…

Federal spending surged from $4.45T (2019) to $7.03T (2025)—a 58% increase; CBO forecasts $89.3T over the next decade. That means that we'll continue to see debasement of the dollar - which is bullish for gold and silver.

Current spending path mirrors WWII levels but without a war. Post-WWII, spending normalized; today's Congress shows no such discipline. The debt will hit $59 trillion (134% of GDP) by 2035 even with assumed tax hikes.

Any new tariffs on China could increase prices ~40% on imported goods. Shipping costs are spiking again, but Christmas supply issues avoided for now. All eyes are on long-term bond yields. They jumped: 10-year at 4.45%, 30-year at 4.9% with inflation fears rising.

All of this has ramifications for the market… especially bonds. So, we'll discuss the pathways ahead… what it means for the market… and how to hedge accordingly.

We'll be live at 8:45 ET. I look forward to seeing you there.

Just click this link…

Stay positive,

Garrett Baldwin