WARNING: Is a Big Dollar change coming? (From Stansberry Research)
Texas Instruments: Earnings Beat, Upbeat Guidance Fuel Recovery 
Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ: TXN) delivered a first-quarter financial performance that significantly surpassed analyst expectations, accompanied by an optimistic outlook for the second quarter. The results triggered a notable rally in Texas Instruments' stock price, bolstering investor confidence that a potential recovery may be taking hold for the analog semiconductor leader after a challenging period for the industry. The company reported Q1 revenue of $4.07 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.28, both well ahead of consensus, suggesting improving fundamentals. Market's down 10% YTD – Buffett's Berkshire up 13%
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Mode Mobile's EarnPhone is flipping the smartphone industry on its head, and you can still invest in their pre-IPO offering at $0.26/share before May 1st. ⚠️Last chance to invest at $0.26/share — price changes on 5/1. Earnings Arrive During Industry Reset Entering 2025, the semiconductor industry faced a recognized cyclical downturn marked by inventory adjustments throughout the supply chain and weakening demand, notably in the key industrial and automotive areas where Texas Instruments has a strong presence. Pre-earnings sentiment was wary, with anxieties surrounding the cycle's length and the possible effects of shifting global trade, including tariffs. Consequently, Texas Instruments’ earnings report for the first quarter was closely observed as an indicator of the broader health of the analog chip sector. Results Top Estimates Across the Board Texas Instruments exceeded expectations in the first quarter, achieving $4.07 billion in revenue. This represents an 11.1% year-over-year increase, surpassing the $3.91 billion consensus estimate by 4.1%. The company's earnings per share (EPS) were also strong at $1.28, significantly exceeding the $1.06 analyst consensus by 20.2%. This figure included a $0.05 per share benefit not initially anticipated in the company's guidance. Strong revenue growth was primarily driven by the Analog segment, which generated $3.21 billion, a solid 13% increase compared to the previous year. The Embedded Processing segment showed stability, with $647 million in revenue, a slight 1% decrease year over year. Profitability remained healthy, although the operating margin of 32.5% was lower than the 35.1% reported in Q1 2024, reflecting the current operating environment. Non-GAAP free cash flow for the quarter was negative $14 million, an improvement from the negative $231 million in the same period last year, which was aided by $260 million from CHIPS Act incentives. The negative free cash flow reflects substantial capital investments and timing. Upbeat Q2 Guidance Fuels Optimism Perhaps more significantly for the stock's trajectory, the company provided second-quarter guidance that surpassed prevailing analyst forecasts. The company projects Q2 revenue between $4.17 billion and $4.53 billion. The midpoint of this range, $4.35 billion, sits comfortably 5.1% above the prior Wall Street consensus of $4.14 billion and implies a year-over-year growth rate of approximately 13.8%. Similarly encouraging was the Q2 EPS guidance of $1.21 to $1.47. Its midpoint of $1.34 represents an 11.9% beat over the previous analyst estimate of $1.24. This forward-looking confidence suggests management perceives improving demand trends and potentially the beginnings of an inventory replenishment cycle among its customers. Reading the Cycle, Managing Risks Insights shared during the post-earnings conference call reinforced the positive outlook. CEO Haviv Ilan offered commentary suggesting the semiconductor cycle might be currently positioned at its lowest point, a view likely welcomed by investors seeking signs of a turnaround. Management indicated that customer inventories appeared low across end markets entering the second quarter, aligning with the potential need for restocking reflected in the guidance. The company also reported sequential growth across most of its end markets, except for a typical seasonal dip in personal electronics. Addressing ongoing concerns about geopolitical tensions and potential tariffs impacting China exposure, management expressed confidence in leveraging its extensive global manufacturing footprint to mitigate risks, stating no near-term impact was anticipated for Q2, while still acknowledging the broader environmental uncertainty. Market Reacts Positively, Sentiment Shifts Bullish The market's reception to the earnings report was unequivocally positive. Texas Instruments’ shares jumped approximately 6% in trading following the announcement, changing hands around $161.61 by midday April 24th. This move occurred on significantly elevated trading volume, nearly double the three-month average by mid-session, indicating strong investor interest. The positive surprise appeared to sway broader sentiment as well; data from retail investor platforms indicated a sharp sentiment reversal from Bearish to Extremely Bullish immediately following the report. This pop provided welcome relief for shareholders, as the stock had been down roughly 18% year-to-date before the earnings release. Building for the Future Understanding Texas Instruments' current financial profile requires acknowledging its long-term strategic focus. The company is in the midst of a significant capital expenditure cycle, investing heavily ($4.7 billion over the trailing twelve months) in building out advanced 300-millimeter wafer fabrication facilities. This strategy is designed to secure long-term manufacturing cost advantages, enhance supply chain control, and capture growth, particularly in the industrial and automotive markets. However, this multi-billion-dollar investment directly impacts near-term financial metrics. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow (FCF), while positive at $1.7 billion (representing a 10.7% FCF margin), is considerably suppressed compared to the more than 30% margins Texas Instruments has historically achieved and targeted. This reflects a deliberate strategic trade-off: sacrificing some near-term FCF generation for anticipated future competitiveness and market share gains. Positive Earnings Provide Foundation for Future Growth Texas Instruments' first-quarter performance and second-quarter outlook provided compelling, tangible evidence that the semiconductor cycle may be turning a corner for the company. The significant beat on revenue and earnings, coupled with stronger-than-expected guidance, suggests improving fundamentals and offers validation for investors anticipating a recovery. The positive market reaction underscores this renewed optimism. Earnings Results for Texas Instruments While the company continues to navigate a period of heavy strategic investment that weighs on near-term free cash flow and draws analyst scrutiny regarding valuation, the latest results significantly bolster confidence in its ability to manage through the cycle and successfully execute its long-term manufacturing expansion. These encouraging signals position Texas Instruments favorably to capitalize on the reviving demand across its key markets. Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson Read this article online › Further Reading: Did you like this article?  
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