The Illusion of a Market Comeback

Don Kaufman here.

Look, I get it.

The market's on a tear, Nvidia's squeezing higher, Meta's breaking out, and the Nasdaq's making everyone feel like a genius again. It's the kind of rally that gets retail traders rushing in to buy calls like they're tickets to the hottest concert in town.

But let me be clear: this isn't a market you should trust.

In fact, if you're getting too comfortable right now, you've probably already made a mistake.

This market is running on speculation, gamma squeezes, and a whole lot of wishful thinking—not fundamentals. Let's break this down before the euphoria blinds you.

The Gamma Squeeze Mirage

Let's start with the elephant in the room: gamma squeezes. Nvidia, Meta, Amazon—they're all being driven higher not because of some magical fundamental transformation, but because of call-buying frenzy.

Here's how it works: retail traders (and some institutions) rush to buy calls, forcing market makers to hedge by buying the underlying stock. That buying pushes the stock higher, which creates a feedback loop.

Sounds great, right? Wrong. Gamma squeezes are like house parties—you can have fun while it lasts, but eventually, someone calls the cops.

Take Meta, for instance. It's squeezing higher, but let's not pretend this is sustainable. Meta is a one-trick pony—it's all advertising. Sure, it's up 9% year-to-date, but when the squeeze unwinds, it's the first stock to fall apart. Nvidia? Same story. Great company, but the stock's movement isn't about fundamentals right now—it's about momentum.

Concentration Risk: The Market's Weak Underbelly

This entire market is being propped up by a handful of stocks. Meta, Nvidia, Amazon—these three names alone are driving the Nasdaq higher. That's not healthy. It's called concentration risk, and it's a recipe for disaster.

Think about it: when the market is this dependent on just a few names, what happens when they stumble? The whole house of cards collapses. And let's not forget, Nvidia is still down 7% year-to-date, Tesla is down 14%, and Google is down 16%. So while everyone's celebrating the recent rally, the broader market is still a mess.

The Bond Market is Screaming: Pay Attention

Here's what nobody's talking about: the bond market. Yields on the 10-year Treasury are creeping back toward 4.5%, a level that historically spooks equity markets.

Why? Because higher yields make stocks—especially overvalued ones—less attractive.

And yet, the market is blissfully ignoring this. It's like the 10-year yield doesn't exist until it hits 4.5%, and then suddenly, everyone panics. Newsflash: it's already a problem. Rising yields impact everything from stock buybacks to dividend payouts.

If you're holding a stock like Apple for its 0.49% dividend, you're going to feel pretty dumb when you can get 5% from a Treasury bond.

The Problems of Yesterday Haven't Disappeared

Let's cut through the noise. The market's rallying because of easing trade tensions, a softer CPI print, and some deal-making in the Middle East. Great. But here's the thing: the problems that dragged us down earlier this year haven't gone anywhere.

Inflation: Sure, the CPI came in at 2.3%, but strip out food and energy, and it's still higher.
Valuations: Tech stocks are trading at nosebleed levels again.
Economic Uncertainty: Companies like UnitedHealthcare are suspending guidance because they have no idea what the future looks like.

This rally isn't solving those problems—it's just masking them.

Why I'm Betting Against the Crowd

he market isn't as strong as it looks. The problems of yesterday are still with us today—and if you're not careful, you'll be the one holding the bag when the music stops."

Don't let the market's flavor of the week distract you from the bigger picture.

Join me this Wednesday at 1pm EST, and I'll show you how to stay sharp, stay patient, and trade with discipline—no matter what Wall Street throws your way."

Reserve Your Spot Now

To your success,

Don Kaufman

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