This Is the Scene Where Most Traders Get Blindsided

Don Kaufman here.

There's a moment in every market cycle—right before the plot twist—where everyone decides risk is dead. Welcome to May 15th, 2025. The S&P's been on a four-day bender.

Headlines are giddy about a Trump-China truce, and the Dow's adding points like it just got a raise. Nvidia and Tesla are up double digits on the week. Amazon, Meta, Alphabet—green lights everywhere. Even the Nasdaq's up over 6% this week. Put simply: the market's not just at the party; it's swinging from the chandelier.

So why am I looking for the exit while everyone else is ordering another round?

Under the Hood: The Risks No One Wants to Talk About

Let's get specific. Yes, some big tech names are on fire—Nvidia's leading the conga line, and Meta's not far behind.

But here's what you won't see in the morning headlines: underneath the surface, the tape is still thin, volatility is playing dead, and the rotation from growth to value is messier than it looks.

This morning, before the champagne popped, Amazon and Tesla were actually trading down off the open. My screens were flashing red on the big dogs before the crowd even found their seats.

And while the headlines are celebrating Foot Locker's 80% moonshot, Dick's Sporting Goods is quietly down double digits on the same news.

UnitedHealthcare? A blue chip turned horror story, down over 60% from last year's highs, dragging the Dow by the ankles.

The Party's Always Loudest Right Before the Lights Go Out

Here's what I see:

Complacency: Option sellers are overconfident, premiums are cheap, and nobody's hedging.
Volume: Still "light and fluffy" despite the new highs. Participation is shallow—one "whoops" headline and watch how fast that liquidity vanishes.
Rotation: Financials are getting love, but most of the week's gains are riding on a handful of megacaps. If those stall, so does the rally.

The market's pricing in perfection—like there's no chance the China truce unravels, no risk of a rogue tweet, and of course, no chance a blue chip goes belly up.

That's not a forecast. That's a confession: nobody's thinking about what could go wrong.

Read the Tape, Not the Confetti

If you're looking for an edge, don't chase the headlines. Don't assume "up" is the only direction just because the parade floats are out.

Look at what's not participating. Watch for the sectors quietly rolling over while the crowd cheers for AI stocks. Pay attention to the subtle, cheap trades that pay off when the crowd gets blindsided—like the out-of-the-money butterflies and the "what if?" hedges everyone else is ignoring.

I don't have to tell you what to do. If you're sharp, you see the setup: the best trades are born in the shadows of euphoria.

Know Where the Exits Are

This rally could keep running. Maybe the market party lasts a little longer. But when everything feels "too easy," that's when seasoned traders quietly map out the exits—long before the crowd realizes the music has stopped.

Enjoy the upside, but don't be caught flat-footed when the mood changes.

If you want to capture those big, outsized wins—without risking your shirt or your peace of mind—now's the time to see what Catapult is all about.

This isn't a typical trade alert or stock tip. Catapult is a whole new way to take moonshot trades with risk so tightly controlled, you can step up to the plate without fear—even if you're wrong.

Want to learn how I'm trading names like Meta, Google, and Nvidia for pennies on the dollar?

Or why this works for IRAs, small accounts, and even for beginners?

Don't wait until everyone's rushing for the exits.

Get instant access to Catapult On Demand Training and see how to trade like the pros—while chaos is still your friend.

To your success,

Don Kaufman