Trump Just Put Markets on Notice

Let the Games Begin: Earnings Season Opens with Banks
By Brandon Chapman, CMT

Earnings season kicks off tomorrow with the big guns, like JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC), and this one could set the tone for the rest of the year. Expectations are lower than they have been, but with valuations stretched (CAPE P/E is near COVID-era highs) even small surprises could trigger outsized moves.

So the board is laid out…

I’ll be looking for metrics like trading revenue, net interest income, margins, and credit loss reserves. These should give us some clues about the state of the legendary American consumer, lending demand, and credit health.

Tech and financials have carried S&P 500 earnings recently, but it’s fair – or polite – to say Magnificent Seven expectations have “cooled.” I think this could shift the burden, and when you look at performance through the lens of new tariffs, we might finally get some clarity on inflation’s next move.

Options activity right now in JPM and WFC suggests traders are bracing for volatility. Whether we get fireworks or a fizzle, the next few days could shape investor sentiment well into the third quarter of 2025.

The market’s leaning in. Let’s look at what to do whichever way it breaks…

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