Bryan Bottarelli, Head Trade Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance Dear Reader, Happy Cyber Monday! Today is the day that everyone goes back to work – and starts scouring the internet for deals on holiday shopping. If that's the case, we could have a powerful trade setup. If you read the Black Friday headlines this weekend, you probably saw the same message recycled over and over again: "Record-Breaking Black Friday!" "The Consumer Is Back!" "Spending Surges!" On the surface, sure - it looks like the American consumer is alive and healthy and ready to keep the spending going. After all, according to Adobe Analytics, U.S. consumers spent a record $6.4 billion online on Thanksgiving itself, up 5.3% from a year ago. Mastercard SpendingPulse said U.S. retail sales rose 4.1% compared with Black Friday 2024. But peel back the veneer... and the story changes from a celebration of consumer strength to a stress signal. The "Record" That Isn't a Record According to Salesforce, despite the strong sales numbers you just read above, shoppers actually bought fewer items per checkout than last year. In other words... Retail sales totals went up... But the actual amount of stuff people bought went down. This wasn't a boom in demand - it was a boom in prices. So, what did this weekend actually prove? People are paying more to buy the same - or less. That's not a strength. That's inflation. The Real Bombshell Signs of inflation are enough to send shivers up anyone's spine - especially those on Wall Street. But the real problem is a new trend that American shoppers love... Buy now, pay later (BNPL). This impulsive, unhealthy, instant-gratification-enabling loophole saw spending hit $747.5 million in one day. That's 6.3% of all digital sales. For Black Friday alone, that's staggering - and it tells me one thing... Households aren't spending because they're flush. Instead, they're spending because they have access to one more line of credit. Credit cards... store financing... "zero-interest" promotions... We're not watching a healthy consumer. Instead, we're watching a consumer stretching tomorrow to survive today - and retailers figuring out slick and creative ways to let it happen. This is not "demand." This is desperation disguised as tradition. And as traders, here's what we need to understand... With every situation comes opportunity. And right now, we have a big one setting up... | 
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