Déjà Vu in the Crypto Market

Bitcoin is down more than 50% from its highs. Ether is down more than 60%. And the entire market has lost more than $2.1 trillion. Investors seem to be checking out once again. It looks like 2022 all over again, and just like in 2022, it will be remembered as a mistake.

                              Written by
                             

Ben Lilly

                          Published on
                         

Jun 22, 2026

Digital assets have had their ups and downs, but 2022 was probably the worst.

Entities like 3 Arrows Capital, BlockFi, and Celsius were filing for bankruptcy. FTX – which many assumed to be a white knight in the industry – was unraveling. By November of that year, it too would file Chapter 11.

Price was making new multi-year lows…

Bitcoin, Ether, and the rest of the crypto market were all down more than 70% in less than a year. More than $2 trillion in value – simply gone.

Fear was rampant.

And the mainstream media was feasting on it. The response from most investors was to simply check out. Log off. Call it quits.

The excitement, it seemed, would never return.

But looking back, those who checked out clearly made the wrong decision.

Bitcoin went on to hit all-time highs roughly 14 months after its low in 2022. Then it continued higher until the total market capitalization of crypto was more than $4 trillion in July 2025, more than 4X the market cap during the dark days of late 2022.

Yet here we are again…

Bitcoin is down more than 50% from its highs. Ether is down more than 60%. And the entire market has lost more than $2.1 trillion.

Investors seem to be checking out once again.

And just like in 2022, it will be remembered as a mistake.

Because this time really is different.

The Disconnect

It’s not uncommon for price and fundamentals to diverge. But in digital assets, this disconnect between asset price and progress with the underlying technology has become a chasm.

The amount of assets moving onchain from the tokenization trend, the infrastructure being completed around AI agents onchain, and even the milestones happening with decentralized AI – all of it is astonishing.

Never has so much improvement happened in such a short time.

In fact, if you’re checking out of the market, you’re not seeing the smart money making its move as it did in 2022…

BlackRock launched a private trust in August 2022.

The goal: give U.S. clients direct exposure to Bitcoin.

At the time, the company stated:

Despite the steep downturn in the digital asset market, we are still seeing substantial interest from some institutional clients in how to efficiently and cost-effectively access these assets using our technology and product capabilities.

At the time, discussions for a Bitcoin spot ETF with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) were ongoing. It felt like a complete longshot. That’s because the SEC was regulating the industry via enforcement, not guidance.

Yet, in the middle of the negative price action, BlackRock saw an asset class worth building around.

And while BlackRock’s timing might have been several months too early, it clearly knew what was coming…

Their clients made a fortune.

And the success teed them up for their next major move – their Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT).

This was a master class. It netted the firm what is set to become the most successful ETF of all time. The fund reached $50 billion and $80 billion in assets under management five times faster than the previous ETF to hold the crown, Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

Their move was planned and executed perfectly. And for those who didn’t check out, it should have been a wake-up call.

In August 2022, BlackRock was telling us that Bitcoin and the digital asset industry still had plenty of opportunity. And they weren’t secretive about it.

It’s happening again today…

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The Moves Today

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink recently stated:

We spend so much time talking about AI, we’re not spending enough time talking about how quickly we’re gonna’ tokenize every financial asset… And moving ETFs and other things through a digital wallet and I think that’s gonna’ happen worldwide very rapidly.

He isn’t just preaching the virtues of tokenization. This is Larry talking his book.

His firm has the largest tokenized treasury fund on the market, called BUIDL. It’s a fund that’s backed by cash and U.S. Treasuries and generates yield for its holders.

What most don’t realize is that the fund was recently listed on UniswapX.

UniswapX is a permissionless, auction-based trading protocol that allows for professional market makers to offer better execution for BUIDL traders.

The news showcased that BlackRock isn’t just sitting idle; it is actively building best-in-class onchain solutions.

As a result…

BlackRock made an undisclosed investment in Uniswap’s native UNI token.

This gives BlackRock direct exposure in decentralized finance (DeFi), where it’s likely to be active.

And it’s not like they were the only ones making moves like this.

One of the largest alternative asset managers in the world, Apollo Global Management, signed an agreement to acquire up to 90 million MORPHO tokens. This is the token behind the lending and borrowing platform called Morpho, which is onboarding assets to its platform from various household names…

What’s important to note is that Uniswap and Morpho are not the only ones helping Wall Street onboard into public and permissionless solutions.

Other DeFi protocols are as well.

It’s no secret.

But to see it means paying close attention.

What we see now is best viewed as Wall Street acquiring exposure to the protocols set to host Wall Street assets that are coming onchain.

But again, this is not the sort of thing you’re going to read about in TheWall Street Journal, Bloomberg, social media, or even various crypto media outlets.

Like 2022, the media is feeding the fear – a distraction amid the volatility.

In our April 22 Chain of Thought issue, The Bitcoin Regime Change Has Already Started, we said this…

Despite our model saying Bitcoin is now in a bullish regime, we need to be prepared for volatility. The market might go back and forth a bit for the coming weeks until the new regime is firmly entrenched.

And that’s what is happening now.

A Second Chance

In 2022, the market flipped back and forth for four months… This regime change looks to be tracking a similar path.

All this to say…

We must remain engaged with the fundamentals…even if the asset prices continue to languish.

And even when the landmark digital asset bill called the CLARITY Act wavers back and forth in the halls of Congress, just like in 2022 when an ETF approval felt childish to think about.

It might not pass on July 4 as the president hopes, but make no mistake, it will pass.

It’s why Wall Street is actively making inroads into crypto… Transaction activity is hitting all-time highs on Ethereum thanks to agentic solutions improving… And we’re now seeing decentralized LLM training runs in the 100 billion parameter size without using a data center.

Momentum is building…

The onchain domain has never been more active.

In the depths of the 2022 fear, most investors missed what was right around the corner.

If you’re not paying attention in 2026, you’ll miss your second chance.

Your Pulse on Crypto,

Ben Lilly
Senior Blockchain Analyst, Chain of Thought