OVV Currently in the "Buy Zone"

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Chuck's Trade of the Day

March 29th, 2021

OVV Currently in the “Buy Zone”

Dear Reader,

On Friday we looked at a Daily 50/100-Day EMA chart for KRE, noting that the 50-day EMA is above the 100-Day EMA which confirmed its uptrend and made it a buy.

For today’s Trade of the Day we will be looking at a Keltner Channel chart for Ovintiv Inc., stock symbol: OVV.

Before breaking down OVV’s daily Keltner Channel chart let’s first review which products and services are offered by the company.

Ovintiv Inc. engages in the exploration, development, production, and marketing of natural gas, oil, and natural gas liquids. It operates through USA Operations, Canadian Operations, and Market Optimization segments.

Now, let’s begin to break down the Keltner Channel chart for OVV. Below is a Daily Price Chart and the three Keltner Channels for OVV stock.

The Hughes Optioneering Team uses the Keltner Channels as an indicator to determine whether a stock is overbought or oversold. If a stock’s daily stock price is trading above the upper Keltner Channel, this signals that the stock is temporarily overbought and subject to a retracement.

Even stocks that are in the strongest bull trends do not advance in a straight line. There are always price retracements along the way. When a stock becomes overbought, it’s price will typically decline soon after as the inevitable profit taking occurs.

The OVV daily price chart shows that the stock is in a strong price uptrend and has become overbought many times. You can see this as OVV has traded above the Upper Keltner Channel on multiple occasions recently.

But, in every scenario when OVV became overbought, the stock quickly soon after experienced a pullback.

Finding opportunities when a stock experiences a pullback is why the Hughes Optioneering Team uses the Keltner Channels. They help us find a lower-risk entry point.

The Keltner Channel “Buy Zone” occurs when a stock is trading below the upper Keltner Channel. Once the daily price is trading below the upper channel, it provides a lower-risk buying opportunity as the stock is likely to rally.

 

 

Profit if OVV Is Down 10%

Now, since OVV is currently in the Keltner Channel “Buy Zone” and will likely rally from here, let’s use the Optioneering calculator to look at the potential returns for a OVV covered call trade. Covered calls are also known as buy writes.

The Buy Write Calculator will calculate the profit/loss potential for a covered call trade based on the price change of the underlying stock/ETF at option expiration in this example from a 10% increase to a 10% decrease in OVV stock at option expiration.

The goal of this example is to demonstrate the ‘built in’ profit potential for covered calls and the ability of covered calls to profit if the underlying stock is up, down or flat at option expiration. Out of fairness to our paid option service subscribers we don’t list the option strike price used in the profit/loss calculation.

The prices and returns represented below were calculated based on the current stock and option pricing for OVV on 3/26/2021 before commissions.

Built in Profit Potential

For this covered call, the calculator analysis below reveals the cost or the breakeven price is $1,940 (circled). The maximum risk for a covered call is the cost of the covered call.

The analysis reveals that if OVV increases 5% or more by expiration the covered call would profit 28.9% or $560.

If OVV is flat at $24.25 by expiration the covered call will realize a $485 profit and a 25.0% return (circled).

If OVV decreases 10% at option expiration, the covered call will realize a $242.50 profit and a 12.5% return.

Due to option pricing characteristics, this covered call has a ‘built in’ 25.0% profit potential when the trade was initiated.

Covered call trades can result in a higher percentage of winning trades compared to a directional stock trade if you can profit when the underlying stock/ETF is up, down or flat.

A higher percentage of winning trades can give you the discipline needed to become a successful trader

The Optioneering Team is here to help you identify winning trades just like this one.

Interested in accessing the Optioneering Calculators? Join one of Chuck's Trading Services for unlimited access! The Optioneering Team has option calculators for six different option strategies that allow you to calculate the profit potential for an option trade before you take the trade.

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As a Trade of the Day subscriber, Chuck is offering you a special discount on his Weekly Option Alert Trading Service.

Just call Brad at 1-866-661-5664 or 1-310-647-5664 to join and use the code "Optioneering VIP" to receive special pricing!

 

Wishing You the Best in Investing Success,

Chuck Huges Signature

Chuck Hughes

Editor, Trade of the Day

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