Aerospace & Defense ETF on Powerful Buy Signal

June 28^th, 2021

Aerospace & Defense ETF on Powerful Buy Signal

Dear Reader,

On Friday, we looked at a Daily Price Chart for Motorola Solutions, Inc. noting that the stock was trading in the Keltner Channel ‘Buy Zone’.

For today’s Trade of the Day e-letter we will be looking at a daily price chart for the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF symbol: ITA.

Before breaking down ITA’s daily chart let’s first review the investment objective of the ETF.

The ITA ETF seeks to track the investment results of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Aerospace & Defense Index composed of U.S. equities in the aerospace and defense sector. The underlying index measures the performance of the aerospace and defense sector of the U.S. equity market. Aerospace companies in the index include manufacturers, assemblers and distributors of aircraft and aircraft parts.

Now, let’s begin to break down the Daily Price chart for the ITA ETF.

Below is a Daily Price chart with the 50-Day EMA and 100-Day EMA for ITA.

50-Day EMA and 100-Day EMA ‘Buy’ Signal

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 100-Day EMA are moving average indicator lines that can provide buy and sell signals when used together. When the shorter-term 50-Day EMA crosses above or below the longer-term 100-Day EMA, this provides either a buy or sell signal depending on which direction the ETF price is moving.

50-Day EMA line Above 100-Day EMA = Price Uptrend = Buy signal
50 Day EMA line Below 100-Day EMA = Price Downtrend = Sell signal

When the 50-Day EMA (blue line) crosses above the 100-Day EMA (red line) this indicates that the ETF’s buying pressure has begun to outweigh the selling pressure signaling a ‘buy’ signal. When the 50-Day EMA crosses below the 100-Day EMA this indicates that the selling pressure has begun to outweigh the buying pressure signaling a ‘sell’ signal.

Buy the ITA ETF

As the chart shows, on November 17^th, the ITA 50-Day EMA, crossed above the 100-Day EMA.

This crossover indicated the buying pressure for the ITA ETF exceeded the selling pressure. For this kind of crossover to occur, an ETF has to be in a strong bullish trend.

Now, as you can see, the 50-Day EMA is still above the 100-Day EMA meaning the ‘buy’ signal is still in play.

As long as the 50-Day EMA remains above the 100-Day EMA, the ETF is more likely to keep trading at new highs and should be purchased.

Our initial price target for the ITA ETF is 125.00 per share.

105.1% Profit Potential for ITA Option

Now, since ITA’s 50-Day EMA is trading above the 100-Day EMA this means the ETF’s bullish rally will likely continue. Let’s use the Hughes Optioneering calculator to look at the potential returns for an ITA call option purchase.

The Call Option Calculator will calculate the profit/loss potential for a call option trade based on the price change of the underlying stock/ETF at option expiration in this example from a flat ITA price to a 12.5% increase.

The Optioneering Team uses the 1% Rule to select an option strike price with a higher percentage of winning trades. In the following ITA option example, we used the 1% Rule to select the ITA option strike price but out of fairness to our paid option service subscribers we don’t list the strike price used in the profit/loss calculation.

Trade with Higher Accuracy

When you use the 1% Rule to select an ITA in-the-money option strike price, the ITA ETF only has to increase 1% for the option to breakeven and start profiting! Remember, if you purchase an at-the-money or out-of-the-money call option and the underlying stock/ETF closes flat at option expiration it will result in a 100% loss for your option trade! In this example, if the ITA ETF is flat at 112.01 at option expiration, it will only result in a 5.8% loss for the ITA option compared to a 100% loss for an at-the-money or out-of-the-money call option.

Using the 1% Rule to select an option strike price will result in a higher percentage of winning trades compared to at-the-money or out-of-the-money call options. This higher accuracy can give you the discipline needed to become a successful option trader and can help avoid 100% losses when trading options.

The goal of this example is to demonstrate the powerful profit potential available from trading options compared to stocks/ETFs.

The prices and returns represented below were calculated based on the current ETF and option pricing for ITA on 6/25/2021 before commissions.

When you purchase a call option, there is no limit on the profit potential of the call if the underlying stock/ETF continues to move up in price.

For this specific call option, the calculator analysis below reveals if the ITA ETF increases 5.0% at option expiration to 117.61 (circled), the call option would make 49.6% before commission.

If the ITA ETF increases 10.0% at option expiration to 123.21 (circled), the call option would make 105.1% before commission and outperform the ETF return more than 10 to 1.

The leverage provided by call options allows you to maximize potential returns on bullish stocks/ETFs.

The Hughes Optioneering Team is here to help you identify winning trades just like this one.

Interested in accessing the Optioneering Calculators? Join one of Chuck's Trading Services for unlimited access! The Optioneering Team has option calculators for six different option strategies that allow you to calculate the profit potential for an option trade before you take the trade.

Get Chuck's Trades Sent to You!

Do you want to start receiving hand-picked trades from 10-Time Trading Champion, Chuck Hughes?

As a Trade of the Day subscriber, Chuck is offering you a special discount on his Weekly Option Alert Trading Service.

Just call Brad at 1-866-661-5664 or 1-310-647-5664 to join and use the code "Optioneering VIP" to receive special pricing!

Wishing You the Best in Investing Success,

Chuck Huges Signature

Chuck Hughes

Editor, Trade of the Day

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Aerospace & Defense ETF on Powerful Buy Signal

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