Definitive 'Sell' Signal for PayPal

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March 8th, 2022 Definitive ‘Sell’ Signal for PayPal Dear Reader, Yesterday, we looked at a Monthly Price Chart for Allegiant Travel Company. noting that the stock’s 1-Month Price is trading below the 10-Month SMA. For today’s Trade of the Day e-letter we will be looking at a daily price chart for PayPal Holdings, Inc. stock symbol: PYPL. Before breaking down PYPL’s daily chart let’s first review what products and services the company offers. PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments on behalf of merchants and consumers worldwide. It provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Zettle, Hyperwallet, Honey, and Paidy names.  Now, let’s begin to break down the Daily Price chart for PYPL stock. Below is a Daily Price chart with the 50-Day EMA and 100-Day EMA for PYPL. 50-Day EMA and 100-Day EMA ‘Sell’ Signal The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 100-Day EMA are moving average indicator lines that can provide buy and sell signals when used together. When the shorter-term 50-Day EMA crosses above or below the longer-term 100-Day EMA, this provides either a buy or sell signal depending on which direction the stock price is moving. 50-Day EMA line Above 100-Day EMA = Price Uptrend = Buy signal 50 Day EMA line Below 100-Day EMA = Price Downtrend = Sell signal When the 50-Day EMA (blue line) crosses above the 100-Day EMA (red line) this indicates that the stock’s buying pressure has begun to outweigh the selling pressure signaling a ‘buy’ signal. When the 50-Day EMA crosses below the 100-Day EMA this indicates that the selling pressure has begun to outweigh the buying pressure signaling a ‘sell’ signal. Sell PYPL Stock As the chart shows, on October 13th, 2021, the PYPL 50-Day EMA, crossed below the 100-Day EMA. This crossover indicated the selling pressure for PYPL stock exceeded the buying pressure. For this kind of crossover to occur, a stock has to be in a strong bearish downtrend Now, as you can see, the 100-Day EMA is still above the 50-Day EMA meaning the ‘sell’ signal is still in play. As long as the 100-Day EMA remains above the 50-Day EMA, the stock is more likely to keep trading at new lows and bearish positions should be entered. Our initial price target for PYPL stock is 85.00 per share. 65.7% Profit Potential for PYPL Option Now, since PYPL’s 100-Day EMA is above the 50-Day EMA this means the stock’s bearish decline will likely continue. Let’s use the Hughes Optioneering calculator to look at the potential returns for a PYPL put option purchase. The Put Option Calculator will calculate the profit/loss potential for a put option trade based on the price change of the underlying stock/ETF at option expiration in this example from a flat PYPL price to a 12.5% decrease. The Optioneering Team uses the 1% Rule to select an option strike price with a higher percentage of winning trades. In the following PYPL option example, we used the 1% Rule to select the PYPL option strike price but out of fairness to our paid option service subscribers we don’t list the strike price used in the profit/loss calculation. Trade with Higher Accuracy When you use the 1% Rule to select a PYPL in-the-money option strike price, PYPL stock only has to decrease 1% for the option to breakeven and start profiting! Remember, if you purchase an at-the-money or out-of-the-money put option and the underlying stock closes flat at option expiration it will result in a 100% loss for your option trade! In this example, if PYPL stock is flat at 93.61 at option expiration, it will only result in a 5.6% loss for the PYPL option compared to a 100% loss for an at-the-money or out-of-the-money put option. Using the 1% Rule to select an option strike price can result in a higher percentage of winning trades compared to at-the-money or out-of-the-money put options. This higher accuracy can give you the discipline needed to become a successful option trader and can help avoid 100% losses when trading options. The goal of this example is to demonstrate the powerful profit potential available from trading options compared to stocks. The prices and returns represented below were calculated based on the current stock and option pricing for PYPL on 3/7/2022 before commissions. When you purchase a put option, there is no limit on the profit potential of the put if the underlying stock continues to decline in price. For this specific put option, the calculator analysis below reveals if PYPL stock decreases 5.0% at option expiration to 88.93 (circled), the put option would make 30.0% before commission. If PYPL stock decreases 10.0% at option expiration to 84.25 (circled), the put option would make 65.7% before commission and greatly outperform the stock return. The leverage provided by put options allows you to maximize potential returns on bearish stocks. The Hughes Optioneering Team is here to help you identify winning trades just like this one. Interested in accessing the Optioneering Calculators? Join one of Chuck's Trading Services for unlimited access! The Optioneering Team has option calculators for six different option strategies that allow you to calculate the profit potential for an option trade before you take the trade. Get Chuck's Trades Sent to You! Do you want to start receiving hand-picked trades from 10-Time Trading Champion, Chuck Hughes? As a Trade of the Day subscriber, Chuck is offering you a special discount on his Weekly Option Alert Trading Service. Just call Brad at 1-866-661-5664 or 1-310-647-5664 to join and use the code "Optioneering VIP" to receive special pricing!   Wishing You the Best in Investing Success, Chuck Hughes Editor, Trade of the Day Have any questions? Email us at dailytrade@chuckstod.com   If you didn't create an account using this email address, please ignore this email or unsubscribe. To ensure delivery of this email to your inbox and to enable images to load in future mailings, please add todaystrade@chuckstod.com to your e-mail address book or safe senders list. © 2021 Tradewins Publishing. All rights reserved. The information provided by the newsletters, trading, training and educational products related to various markets (collectively referred to as the "Services") is not customized or personalized to any particular risk profile or tolerance. Nor is the information published by Legacy Publishing, LLC ("Legacy") a customized or personalized recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or invest in particular financial products. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and is not appropriate for everyone. The actual profit results presented here may vary with the actual profit results presented in other Legacy Publishing LLC publications due to the different strategies and time frames presented in other publications. Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Other than the refund policy detailed elsewhere, Legacy does not make any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using the Services. Legacy disclaims any and all liability for any investment or trading loss sustained by a subscriber. You should trade or invest only 'risk capital' - money you can afford to lose. Trading stocks and stock options involves high risk and you can lose the entire principal amount invested or more. There is no guarantee that systems, indicators, or trading signals will result in profits or that they will not produce losses. Some profit examples are based on hypothetical or simulated trading. This means the trades are not actual trades and instead are hypothetical trades based on real market prices at the time the recommendation is disseminated. No actual money is invested, nor are any trades executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. Also, the hypothetical results do not include the costs of subscriptions, commissions, or other fees. Because the trades underlying these examples have not actually been executed, the results may understate or overstate the impact of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Legacy makes no representations or warranties that any account will or is likely to achieve profits similar to those shown. No representation is being made that you will achieve profits or the same results as any person providing a testimonial. No representation is being made that any person providing a testimonial is likely to continue to experience profitable trading after the date on which the testimonial was provided, and in fact the person providing the testimonial may have subsequently experienced losses. The cost basis for some of the options in a portfolio may be reduced by rolling over profits at option expiration which is one of the Hughes Optioneering Trade Management Rules. Some income figures presented represent the total amount of option premium collected during the referenced period. Actual profits were less. Open trade profit results may have increased or decreased when the trades were closed out. Chuck Hughes' experiences are not typical. Chuck Hughes is an experienced investor and your results will vary depending on risk tolerance, amount of risk capital utilized, size of trading position, willingness to follow the rules and other factors.

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