Built-in 78.6% Profit Potential for CF

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Chuck's Trade of the Day

April 1st, 2022

Built-in 78.6% Profit Potential for CF

Dear Reader,

Yesterday, we looked at a Daily Price Chart of Exelon Corporation, noting that the stock’s 24/52 Day MACD is trading above the 18-Day EMA.

For today’s Trade of the Day we will be looking at a Keltner Channel chart for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. stock symbol: CF.

Before breaking down CF’s daily Keltner Channel chart let’s first review which products and services are offered by the company.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium.

Now, let’s begin to break down the Keltner Channel chart for CF. Below is a Daily Price Chart and the three Keltner Channels for CF stock.

Buy CF Stock

The Hughes Optioneering Team uses the Keltner Channels as an indicator to determine whether a stock is overbought or oversold. If a stock’s daily stock price is trading above the upper Keltner Channel, this signals that the stock is temporarily overbought and subject to a retracement.

Even stocks that are in the strongest bull trends do not advance in a straight line. There are always price retracements along the way. When a stock becomes overbought, it’s price will typically decline soon after as the inevitable profit taking occurs.

The CF daily price chart shows that the stock is in a strong price uptrend and has become overbought several times. You can see this as CF has traded above the Upper Keltner Channel on multiple occasions recently.

But, in every scenario when CF became overbought, the stock soon experienced a pullback.

Finding opportunities when a stock experiences a pullback is why the Hughes Optioneering Team uses the Keltner Channels. They help us find a lower-risk entry point.

The Keltner Channel “Buy Zone” occurs when a stock is trading below the upper Keltner Channel. Once the daily price is trading below the upper channel, it provides a lower-risk buying opportunity as the stock is likely to rally.

Our initial price target for CF stock is 110.00 per share.

Profit if CF is Up, Down or Flat

Now, since CF is trading in the Keltner Channel ‘Buy Zone’ this offers a prime trade entry opportunity. Let’s use the Hughes Optioneering calculator to look at the potential returns for a CF call option spread.

The Call Option Spread Calculator will calculate the profit/loss potential for a call option spread based on the price change of the underlying stock/ETF at option expiration in this example from a 7.5% increase to a 7.5% decrease in CF stock at option expiration.

The goal of this example is to demonstrate the ‘built in’ profit potential for option spreads and the ability of spreads to profit if the underlying stock is up, down or flat at option expiration. Out of fairness to our paid option service subscribers we don’t list the option strike prices used in the profit/loss calculation.

The prices and returns represented below were calculated based on the current stock and option pricing for CF on 3/31/2022 before commissions.

Built in Profit Potential

For this option spread, the calculator analysis below reveals the cost of the spread is $280 (circled). The maximum risk for an option spread is the cost of the spread.

The analysis reveals that if CF stock is flat or up at all at expiration the spread will realize a 78.6% return (circled).

And if CF stock decreases 7.5% at option expiration, the option spread would make a 78.6% return (circled).

Option spread trades can result in a higher percentage of winning trades compared to a directional option trade if you can profit when the underlying stock/ETF is up, down or flat.

A higher percentage of winning trades can give you the discipline needed to become a successful trader.

The Hughes Optioneering Team is here to help you identify winning trades just like this one.

Interested in accessing the Optioneering Calculators? Join one of Chuck's Trading Services for unlimited access! The Optioneering Team has option calculators for six different option strategies that allow you to calculate the profit potential for an option trade before you take the trade.

Average Portfolio Return of 119.2%

Below is a screenshot of the current open trade profit opportunities from Chuck’s Weekly Option Alert Trading Service. There are currently $474,608.70 in open trade profits with an average portfolio return of 119.2% demonstrating the ability of the Optioneering Strategy to deliver substantial profit opportunities with no losing portfolios.

Trade Like a Champion? 

Do you want to start receiving hand-picked trades from 10-Time Trading Champion, Chuck Hughes?

As a Trade of the Day subscriber, Chuck is offering you a special discount on his Weekly Option Alert Trading Service.

Just call Brad at 1-866-661-5664 or 1-310-647-5664 to join and use the code "Optioneering VIP" to receive special pricing!

 

Wishing You the Best in Investing Success,

Chuck Huges Signature

Chuck Hughes

Editor, Trade of the Day

Have any questions? Email us at dailytrade@chuckstod.com

 

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