With all of the chaos in financial stocks, it’s time to buy the fear.
Remember, crises often create opportunities, as we’ve learned from some of the richest investors. Warren Buffett, for example, tells us to be “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Sir John Templeton taught us to buy excessive pessimism.
Even Baron Rothschild once told investors, “The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.”
For example, we can take advantage of the fear in financials with recent pullbacks.
Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF)
Over the last few weeks, the XLF ETF dropped from about $35 to $33.74, where it appears to have caught strong support. It’s also oversold on RSI, MACD, and Williams’ %R. In fact, if you pull up a one or two-year chart of the XLF, you can see that every time these three indicators drop into oversold territory at the same time, the ETF will pivot higher shortly after.
With an expense ratio of 0.10%, the XLF ETF holds positions in Berkshire Hathaway, JP Morgan, Visa, Mastercard, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs to name a few.
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
Or, we can look at the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), which is also technically oversold at the moment. From a current price of $41, we’d like to see the KRE ETF run back to about $45 a share, near-term. With an expense ratio of 0.35%, the KRE ETF holds a position in stocks, such as Western Alliance, Pinnacle Financial, New York Community, and Valley National.
For expected bearish moves in a stock, and therefore a possible bearish put option position, I look for breaks in the stock price’s support and then confirmation of the break from at least one other indicator. Below is a chart of AOL which shows the stock breaking its support line.
As you can see, the support line used to be resistance about one month prior to the break in support. This is very normal. In almost all cases of a stock breaking through its resistance line, that resistance line becomes support. Now that the stock has broken support, we need confirmation of the move in the stock price. Looking at the stock’s chart, you would see that confirmation is written all over the place. First, the stock broke support and crossed its 21 bar exponential moving average at the same time. Second, the stock tried to bounce back the next day, but was unable to close above the “new resistance” line (old support) by the end of the day. And third, On Balance Volume tried to bounce back through its moving average but was unable to do so. These are very good confirmations of the sentiment coming from the investors of the stock.
So now that we have confirmation of the break in the support line, we are ready to buy a put option on the stock. In this case, since the stock broke support around the end of the July options expiration date, we would want to buy the August expiration. The stock broke support around 115, so we would want to buy the 115 or 110 strike price.
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