Sign up for our free educational webinar on options trading featuring speaker Keith Harwood from Option Hotline. Keith will explain how professional option traders use complex options strategies to make this the most wonderful time of the year.
There are many ways to leverage market conditions, and there are some amazing trading strategies lining up for the markets as we come to the end of 2023.
Heading into the holidays, we knew sales would be explosive.
As we noted just weeks ago, according to Deloitte, 2023 holiday sales could rise about 3.5% to 4.6%, resulting in sales of about $1.54 trillion to $1.56 trillion. Meanwhile, holiday e-commerce sales could see a year-over-year boost. According to Reuters, “The sales are also expected to grow at a much faster pace and hit $221.8 billion for the period between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31.
However, it appears online sales could do much better.
Black Friday online sales, for example, were up 7.5% year over year to about $10 billion. Also, as noted by MarketWatch.com, “Adobe Analytics said it expects Cyber Monday to remain the season’s and year’s biggest online shopping day at $12 billion, up 6.1% year-on-year.”
That being said, it’s no surprise that funds such as the Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY) ran from a November 1 low of $40.68 to $48.03 so far. Or that the ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) ran from a low of about $29.14 to $32.47 so far.
While that’s great news on the long side of the holiday ETF trade, we have to remember that once the holidays are over, many will pull back on profit taking. And while you can always short, or buy a put option on the IBUY and ONLN ETFs, you can also pick up inverse retail ETFs, which benefit from the expected pullback.
Market highs and lows differ in frequency and duration, depending upon the time frame one applies. For the most part, short-term highs and lows may not have much of an impact upon the overall market picture or trend. Obviously, at major turning points, short-term price bottoms and tops will coincide with and evolve into long-term price bottoms and tops, since longer-period market price moves are comprised of a series of shorter-period market price moves. Personally, our trading efforts are most often devoted to these short time frames. This enables us to participate in many short-lived price moves, and, at the same time, (market conditions justifying), also allows us to extend our holding period for a longer period of time. Since any market turning point could extend into a significant bottom or top, we encourage day traders to hold their trading positions longer on occasion. However, because short-term signals may only be effective for a short period of time, we advocate protecting market positions at all times with stop losses.
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The first profit opportunity we will review is in AGI, or Alamos Gold Inc. AGI is a Canadian-based intermediate gold producer with diversified production from three operating mines in North America.
The monthly chart shows that AGI closed above the moving average line every month but one for over a year. The October close was back above the moving average line, so the trend is up.
The daily chart shows that AGI is very close to the highest point on the chart. That’s bullish! The next target is 20.
We recommend buying AGI stock at the current price level. The AGI dividend yield is 0.73%.
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