TheoTrade Daily: Bad Data Swamped the Bulls

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

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A Bad Data Deluge Swamped Markets - And More Is Coming
By Don Kaufman

The number is in… and it wasn't great. Today's economic data dump showed growth shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025 - the first decline since 2022's kinda-sorta recession-lite.

One more quarter of contraction and we're in a recession.

The markets know this, and they're not crazy about it, and what volume there was was largely into selling tech stocks. (Nvidia picked up another downgrade, but that's a whole 'nother story.)

We got a 38-handle decline on the S&P 500, after the bulls fought back a little at midday.

I'm surprised it wasn't worse. I mean, these numbers were bad. The ADP jobs report was extremely weak, too, and the cherry on top was a PCE number that showed inflation is still on the hot side.

There's more data coming, too. Nonfarm payrolls, a ton of earnings like Meta, Microsoft, and Apple.

All this comes during a week when we've got a $150 expected move on SPX.

Let's take a look at what that means, how we can make sense of the price data (the data that counts at the end of the day), and how to play it…

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Warm regards,

Don Kaufman

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