New Market Video Update
| | | Don Kaufman here. | I'm going to lay it on the line for you right here, right now... | This marketplace is dramatically underestimating some serious risks. | We're grinding sideways with light and fluffy volume - only 859,000 contracts in the S&P futures today - and everyone's buying garbage. | Nuclear stocks, no-name companies... it's froth, okay? | Look, from a risk-reward standpoint, this just does not look favorable. And I'm not trying to bear up on anybody here, but the math is what it is. | Here's what's got me fired up after today's session: | • Why the S&P's incredible 1,000-point rally has created a ceiling that could drop the market "like a rock" - even though there's still upside potential | • How volatility futures are already pricing July VIX above 20 - meaning the market itself is screaming that volatility has a "pretty good chance of going up" | | | | • Why we're still "one tweet or Truth Social post away" from an all-out trade war - and the rhetoric coming out of China and the U.S. is NOT good | The upside potential? | Maybe 20 SPY points higher. The downside risks? They could be massive, and I just don't see it priced into this marketplace. | Is this a wild game of chicken? Absolutely, unequivocally YES. | The VIX isn't even pricing off 17.50 anymore - it's already pricing itself above 20. Even volatility is saying "no look, like volatility has a pretty good chance of going up." | WATCH: See my complete breakdown here | The downside risks are perilous right now versus that upside potential. | To your success, | Don Kaufman | | |
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