The Setups Are All Here

Jobs Miss, Markets Stall, and Consumers Are Looking Shaky
By Blake Young

I spent the day watching a fragile market dance on a very thin tightrope. If you’ve been with me for a while, you’ll know how important I think monkey bars are; I use them constantly in selecting my trades.

Well, the S&P 500 just rejected the 50% monkey bar level - more on that in a few, but it’s enough to say right here that this could mark the beginning of a meaningful top. We’ve got bearish divergence on the charts, softening job data, and key levels giving way.

I think the story underneath all of this is the legendary “American consumer” - that mythical creature who drives more than 70% of US GDP. Payroll processor ADP released disastrous numbers, unemployment claims look to be surging, and tomorrow, we’ve got nonfarm payrolls.

If that number misses the way ADP’s did, we’re not just looking at a challenging short-term technical setup, we’re talking about very real risks to real estate, discretionary spending, and credit.

So tonight, we’ll dig deep into big tickers across all these sectors - homebuilders, Visa (V), and even Royal Caribbean (RCL). There are profitable setups there - we just need the data to light the fuse.

Let’s look at the market’s real-time tells here…

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