The Market’s At a Decision Point — But I’m Still Bullish
If you’ve been trading the last six weeks, you know it’s been a little nuts. Big swings, big reactions, and now… kind of nothing.
And honestly? I think that’s a good thing.
We’re probably due for a couple of flat weeks here. A little consolidation. And after the kind of run we’ve had, I’ll take that. Because as far as I’m concerned, anything that’s not aggressively bearish still puts us on the path toward new all-time highs.
I think we’re at a bit of a crossroads.
You can see it in the S&P. We’ve had a massive rally, and for the last few weeks, we’ve gone nowhere. First real consolidation since mid-April. The big question now is: do we pull back and correct more deeply, or do we just hang tight and then rip higher?
I don’t have a crystal ball, but I’m letting price action lead the way — and based on what I’m seeing, I still lean bullish.
We’ve rejected some pretty meaningful news. We’re digesting. That doesn’t look like a breakdown to me — it looks like a market pausing before deciding whether to launch again.
Sector Strength, Insider Fuel, and Context That Matters
When I look at sector rotation, I’m not seeing anything that makes me nervous.
Most sectors are huddled together. Nothing’s getting crushed in a way that screams breakdown. Energy looks soft on paper, but that’s misleading — some of the nuclear names have been on fire, and XLE doesn’t reflect that.
Tech, defensive names, even financials — they’ve all taken small hits but still look strong enough to help push toward new highs. Gold’s losing liquidity too, which tells me risk appetite is still out there.
One thing the bulls haven’t even used yet is insider buying. It’s been quiet. Really quiet.
But if the market keeps climbing, that changes. You can’t have insiders sitting on their hands while the indexes run 8–10% higher. At some point, they’ll be forced back in — and when that money comes off the sidelines, it can push this thing a lot higher.
Now, I know the put/call ratio is giving people pause. Retail’s been chasing calls, and yeah — that’s led to corrections before.
But zoom out. On a five-year view, we’ve seen these extreme levels before… and the market kept grinding up. It’s not something to ignore, but it’s not a reason to bail either. Add context before making decisions off a single chart.
And speaking of context, the dominance of the Mag 7 can’t be overstated.
These names are still outperforming everything else, even with deeper corrections along the way. The old logic was: “Yeah, but when things get rocky, go back to the safe names.” That hasn’t played out. Even in rough patches, the Mags are bouncing back faster and running harder.
Whether the macro backdrop is tight regulation or wide-open free markets, those companies have the resources, leverage, and scale to win either way.
A Trade That Matches the Macro
One of my favorite ways to play this environment right now is simple: a call debit spread on MAGS paired with a put debit spread on IWM.
It’s a clean setup.
If the market keeps pushing? MAGS pays. If we finally pull back? IWM pays.
And in a lot of real-world scenarios, you’re winning on one side — or even both if things line up right.
You can run it short-term, long-term, however aggressive you want. But I think it’s a smart way to position yourself for what this market’s offering.
There’s still gas in the tank. The squeeze cycle’s intact. And the smart money hasn’t even fully stepped in yet.
This trade gives you exposure to both sides — and a cushion while you let the price action do the talking.
— Nate Tucci
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