The numbers don't lie - we have stagflation right now

Hey there, Blake here.

The numbers don't lie - we have stagflation in the data. I don't need to get a report. I can look at the price.

While everyone waits for economists to publish their quarterly assessments, I'm watching the market scream the answer in real-time. Gold hitting record highs while copper crashes tells me everything I need to know.

Here's exactly how to read it.

The 3-Signal Stagflation Detection System

Stagflation = Inflation without growth. Here's how to spot it as it's happening:

Signal #1: Gold Breaking Records

Gold just closed above $2,621.80, targeting $2,716. Smart money is hedging against inflation. When gold makes new highs, institutional players are betting on currency debasement.

Signal #2: Growth Commodities Collapsing

Copper giving sell signals, targeting $4.59. Crude struggling at yearly levels. Both breaking below key support. Translation: Demand for growth-driven materials is dying.

Signal #3: The Divergence

When inflation hedges climb while utility commodities fall, you're seeing inflation without growth to justify it. That's stagflation - and the market's pricing it in real-time.

Why This Beats Waiting for Reports

JOLTS came out showing 200,000 fewer job openings than expected. Look what happened immediately:

Gold spiked to new records
Copper sold off hard
Industrial stocks dropped despite rate cut hopes

The stagflation setup was complete before most people finished reading the headlines.

The Proof: Sectors Don't Lie

When basic materials and industrials sell off on the same day we're pricing in cheaper borrowing costs, that tells me everything.

Lower rates should help manufacturers. Instead, they're down because the market knows: They won't borrow even if money's cheaper because there's no expansion happening.

The market's betting against growth while hedging inflation. Classic stagflation.

How to Read This in Real-Time

Watch the divergence: Gold up + copper down = stagflation signal
Check industrial behavior: Selling off on good news = demand destruction
Follow the money flow: Out of growth commodities, into inflation hedges

When all three align, stagflation's already happening - regardless of what next month's report will say.

The market's voting every second. The only question is whether you're reading the ballot or waiting for someone else to count the votes.

If you want to trade along with me, you can catch me in the TheoTrade Chatroom tomorrow.

Have a good one,

Blake

"The Clock Was Ticking"

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Macro In 60 Seconds

• Jolts data came in weaker (7.18M vs forecast 7.38M), signaling labor market softening

• Fed rate cut probability jumped from 88% last week → 95% today via CME FedWatch

• Jobs data deterioration aligns with Fed's Jackson Hole guidance: labor weakness = justification to cut even if inflation elevated

• Expected outcome: weaker USD, stronger equities and gold

Bottom Line: Market nearly pricing in a September cut, dollar weakening theme dominates.

Playbook

Stagflation = inflation hedge assets up (gold), growth-demand commodities down (crude, copper), equities rotation/divergence across indexes, bonds bid.

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