We're pulling back from record highs as the Fed meeting begins...
| | What if you could see the market's next big move before it made headlines? | That's exactly what the Dark Wire delivers… | Detecting explosive trades hours before Wall Street reacts. | | | | Good afternoon, Traders: | Here's my halftime report as we continue our frantic race toward tomorrow's rate announcement. Here's what's on our minds… | Fed Meeting Day 1 | The Cut Everyone Expects | Markets have the 25bp cut fully baked in (with a small 50bp tail). The dollar is sliding, gold has just printed fresh highs, and equities are struggling to find direction. | The real game tomorrow: dot plots and Powell's tone on the year-end trajectory. | We're looking at a vulnerable U.S. dollar with no real panic in the money markets. Instead, we continue to focus on gold and miners thanks to the dovish skew. | Retail Sales Beat | Goldilocks or Price Mirage? | August arrived hot on retail sales. This keeps the dream of a soft landing alive. | But dig deeper… We see that price effects are meeting a softening labor market. | This hot report doesn't stop the cut, but might cap the pace if demand stays this sticky. | Monitor consumer discretionary spending against the dispersion of staple goods. | We want to fade knee-jerk moves. | Funding Plumbing | SOFR Tightens Into Tax Season | SOFR rose to ~4.42% (above the IOER) as banks bid on Fed repo for $1.5B. | This isn't a crisis, but the September tax/coupon dynamics, combined with bill supply, are tightening the screws. | Today's 4/8/17 auction is worth watching. | Join Me Live Today at 3 PM ET. | I'll be breaking down the Fed playbook and mapping out specific trades (rates steepeners, gold upside, and a retail stocks) for tomorrow's announcement. | You can access the session with this Name Your Price offer. | It's worth every penny of… well, whatever you decide. | Let's get ready the biggest trading day of the year… | Stay positive, | Garrett Baldwin |
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