Holiday Trend Watch: Agentic AI and the Trillion-Dollar Opportunity

BY ANDY SWAN, FOUNDER, LIKEFOLIO

If any AI ever truly knows me, it gets all my money.

Big Tech knows it.

That’s why every company with data and payment access is spending billions to build the first AI that doesn’t just answer you, it acts for you.

It will know your size, your budget, your favorite colors, and the brands you never buy again.

It will remember the shoes you returned and the trip you booked.

It will predict what you need and can buy it before you ask.

You will allow it because it will usually be right.

This is agentic shopping, and it's the next logical step in convenience.

The moment you stop opening your phone to search is the moment shopping changes forever.

The assistant becomes the buyer.

It’s the one saying, “I found a Beastie Boys bobblehead collection on eBay for $24… u want that right?”

Or you tell it, “Bro book the flight u know I want. Send me a text or whatever to confirm right before you buy.”

You don’t shop – you simply approve.

That sounds far-off until you realize the biggest companies in the world are already wiring themselves for it.

And with another record holiday spending season upon us, now's the time to pay attention…

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Tapping into a Trillion-Dollar Agentic AI Megatrend

Amazon.com (AMZN) has cut 14,000 corporate jobs and formed a new AWS “Agentic AI Group” to automate buying, logistics, and customer tasks. The company is retraining Alexa and testing “Help Me Decide,” an AI shopping tool that uses personal order history to assist with purchases before you search.

Source: Amazon

Last week’s earnings results show how central that vision already is for Amazon.

CEO Andy Jassy said on the Oct. 30 call that Rufus, Amazon’s AI shopping assistant, now has 250 million active customers and is on track to drive more than $10 billion in annualized sales. Paid units grew 11%, and interactions with Rufus rose 210% year over year – proof that AI is quietly becoming the new front door to commerce.

Just this morning, the commerce king announced a massive $38 billion deal with OpenAI that sent the stock flying to an all-time high of $255.64. OpenAI will use Amazon’s cloud infrastructure to run its AI workloads – tapping into hundreds of thousands of Nvidia (NVDA) AI chips housed in Amazon’s AI servers.

These developments follow a strong showing from Amazon’s Oct. 7-8 Big Deal Days.

During the semi-annual online shopping event, our data engine logged a 21% acceleration in Amazon digital demand, with search interest for “Prime deals” climbing about 12% year over year:

Households spent an average of around $104, with many placing multiple orders. While essentials dominated purchase categories, roughly 30% of shoppers used the event to begin holiday gift buying – consistent with last year’s trend of consumers starting early.

Satisfaction ticked slightly higher this year, with 58% of shoppers reporting they were “very” or “extremely” satisfied with the deals.

According to Visa’s (V) annual forecast, more than half of consumers started their gift search in October, potentially fueling a projected 4.6% increase in spending this season.

Our Social Heat Score confirms Amazon is capturing those sales with its AI-powered tools. This tool distills millions of individual data points we get from online sources – from social media mentions to search queries – into an easy-to-read 0 to 100 score.

AMZN's Social Heat Score stands at bullish 70.3 out of 100 as demand strengthens behind the scenes:

The biggest spending season of the year is upon us – and AMZN is a prime profit opportunity.

A Segment Ripe for Disruption

Amazon is one opportunity inside an agentic commerce market set to reach $136 billion in 2025 – and projected to grow to $1.7 trillion by 2030.

That translates to a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67%.

Agentic Commerce Total Addressable Market (Source: Global Data)

Global e-commerce is already on track to reach $6.4 trillion this year, translating to about 20% of all retail.

For now, traditional e-commerce marketplaces dominate traffic. But ChatGPT is steadily chipping away at that lead.

GPT's recent launch of in-app shopping means users can now ask for product ideas, get personalized recommendations, and buy the item without ever touching Amazon or Google (GOOGL).

ChatGPT referrals are (comparatively) small today, but acceleration is steadily rising month after month (now up 5% year over year):

Conversion Rate of Retail Visits Referred via ChatGPT (Source: Similarweb)

Amazon is uniquely positioned to defend against GPT with a built-in army of 200 million Prime members. The convenience of two-day shipping (plus all the other perks you get with Prime) is hard to beat. AI-powered tools like Rufus and Help Me Decide will make it even more sticky.

As AI assistants start buying, existing marketplaces stand to lose traffic and ownership of the sale if they can’t integrate or build their own, better version.

Bottom line: The next major change in how we shop is already here.

Every leap in retail has rewarded whoever removed the most effort.

The department store saved consumers a walk.
The catalog saved the trip entirely.
The website saved waiting on a mail delivery.

AI will save the entire thought.

Whoever owns that thought will own the customer. That’s what we’re watching for next.

But as for the ultimate Agentic AI stock? That’s one we’ve reserved for our MegaTrends members – along with the five other profit opportunities contained inside our just-launched Ultimate Stock Strategy Portfolio.

This ultimate strategy infuses the consumer insights from our Social Heat Score with the fundamental and institutional signals perfected by 45-year market veteran Louis Navellier to identify the stocks with the highest potential for profits.

The Agentic AI stock it identified has one of the single highest Social Heat Scores in our system today at a scorching 99.4 out of 100.

Just last week, that Social Heat Score was 99.2 – meaning this "ultimate" stock winner is gaining momentum in real time.

You’re not too late to the party.

But the opportunity won’t stay open forever.

Watch this video now to learn how you can get your hands on the full Ultimate Stock Strategy Portfolio before the replay goes offline tomorrow.

Holiday Trend Watch: Agentic AI and the Trillion-Dollar Opportunity