(New Video From Don)
| | Don Kaufman here. | You know what, I've been saying it all weekend - vol's breaking, trust nothing. | And if you watched Friday's close and thought "hey, markets finished basically unchanged, maybe we're through the worst of it," well, you're missing what's actually happening under the hood here. | I just put out my weekend update video, and honestly, you need to watch this one because what I'm seeing in the volatility structure right now is pretty wild. | Look, everyone's staring at VIX sitting at 20 thinking that tells them something. | It doesn't tell you a hell of a lot. But when you start digging into 33-day volatility, when you look at the back month vol - that's where it gets interesting. | Back month volatility is still sky high. They're already projecting substantially higher volatility for months ahead, and markets typically don't do that unless something's really brewing. | I spent the entire video walking through what happened this week, and it's basically Mr. Toad's wild ride out there. | You had airlines hitting the lower edge of expected moves, home builders getting hammered, industrials crushed. Even utilities - boring old utilities - were getting destroyed. | But healthcare? Healthcare was exploding to the upside in a full two-standard-deviation move. I actually wanted to take a short position there but backed away because of all the bullish order flow. | This is sector rotation gone completely wild, and it wreaks of last gasp moves. | Portfolio managers are just shoving capital around, making poor decisions because nobody wants to be left holding that bag when the music stops. | Then there's crypto. | Bitcoin's already down 25% from recent highs, and I'm telling you, companies like MicroStrategy aren't gonna survive if this keeps going. | There's some firms that are not going to make it the next couple of weeks. And when crypto really breaks through 90,000, all hell's gonna break loose because it's gonna bleed back into the S&P 500 through correlation factors. | Next week we're looking at almost a $150 expected move. | Put on your big boy pants. Last week was $123 and look what happened. This week's gonna be bigger, and volatility isn't calming down even after we rallied back today. | I cover all of this in detail in the weekend update - the exact levels I'm watching, why the correlation isn't there yet, and why in my opinion we haven't even started to sell. | Because when you look at the advance decline line, when you see that we only hit 90 decliners for a brief moment before tech rallied us back, that's not capitulation. | That's not real selling. | Watch the full weekend update to see exactly what I'm positioning for next week and why vol's breaking means you can't trust any of these surface-level moves. | It's getting real out there, and next week's gonna tell us a lot. | To your success, | Don Kaufman | | | | Why I Put My Own $250K Behind This Unknown Trader | 27 years in this business. Employee #13 at Thinkorswim. Helped build it to $4 billion. | Then this quiet farmer from Michigan made me question everything. | IONQ calls when nobody's talking quantum. Up 74% in four days. | AMD calls three days before OpenAI deal breaks. 389% return. | Tesla: 155%. HUT8: 132%. | I put $250K of my own money into a joint account with Gianni. Year to date: up $85,000. | Most traders chase headlines. Gianni spots institutional alignment before the crowd catches on. | Want to see exactly how? | Watch the Replay | | | | |
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