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Don Kaufman here. |
My phone was ringing all week. |
People calling me, freaking out. "Don, what's happening? NVIDIA crashed! What do we do?" |
Then Friday hits and suddenly it's "Don, we're up 700 points! Should I buy the rally?" |
I'm sitting there looking at my screens thinking: Are you kidding me? |
The Dow swung 1,400 points in two days. Thursday we crashed, Friday we ripped on some Fed guy in Chile saying maybe they'll cut rates. And you're trying to time every move? |
Here's what I told them: Your timing always sucks in volatility. Just get that into your head right now. |
The 97 Million Day Nobody Understood |
Thursday was one of the top three highest option volume days in history. Ninety-seven million contracts traded. The November average has been 69 million. |
Algorithms popping off. Retail going nuts. Dynamic hedging everywhere. |
And everyone was trying to time the perfect entry in the middle of this chaos. |
Thursday morning: "I'm buying the NVIDIA gap!"
Thursday afternoon: "Holy crap, I'm getting destroyed!"
Friday morning: "Should I chase this Fed rally?" |
How'd that work out for you? |
When Markets Swing on Fed Speak |
We were hitting 6,000 contracts per minute in the S&P futures Thursday. Massive candles - 12 and 14-point moves every single minute. |
Then Friday, some Fed official mentions maybe cutting rates again, and boom - 700-point Dow rally. |
Meanwhile, traders are sitting there with timing strategies trying to catch every swing. |
That's like bringing a butter knife to a gunfight. |
The Bitcoin Massacre |
Bitcoin dropped 10% this week. You know how many crypto day-traders got chopped up trying to buy every "dip" on the way down? |
Every bounce looked like "the bottom." Every Fed comment looked like "the catalyst." Every technical level looked like "support." |
Your timing sucked on all of them. |
Contract Size Never Lies |
Thursday morning we were doing almost half a million futures contracts before cash open. That's pure hedging activity. When hedging activity is that big, you're destabilized. |
The marketplace was looking to latch onto anything - NVIDIA earnings, Fed speak, any excuse to move violently. |
The Bid-Offer Reality |
Thursday morning, the SPY options had 4% wide bid-offer spreads at the money. These are normally penny-wide. |
Friday's rally? Spreads still blown out because nobody trusted the move. |
You think you're gonna nail perfect timing when market makers are that spooked? |
The Fed Rally Trap |
Friday's 700-point rally perfectly proves my point. |
How many traders got whipsawed trying to time Thursday's bottom? How many missed Friday's rally because they were still licking wounds? How many chased Friday's move only to give it back? |
This is what happens when you focus on timing instead of managing chaos. |
Stop Trying to Be the Hero |
Everyone wanted to perfectly time NVIDIA's reversal Thursday. Catch the exact bottom before Friday's Fed rally. Nail the crypto bounce that never came. |
Here's the brutal truth: You didn't. Almost nobody did. |
What Actually Worked This Week |
The traders who survived did these things: |
Used spreads instead of naked options. When bid-offers are blown out, defined risk saves your account. |
Sized down during the insanity. Big moves mean big risk. |
Accepted whipsaws as part of the game. Instead of trying to avoid them, they managed through them. |
Focused on probability zones, not perfect entries. |
The Volatility Paradox |
Here's what killed most traders this week: They thought bigger moves required better timing. |
Completely backwards. |
This week's 1,400-point swings required better risk management and accepting that timing precision becomes impossible. |
The Bottom Line |
While everyone was trying to nail perfect entries on Thursday's crash and Friday's rally, the smart money was using spreads, managing risk, and accepting that volatility timing is mostly luck. |
Your edge isn't perfect timing. It's recognizing when timing becomes impossible and building strategy around that reality. |
Stop trying to be the timing hero. Start being the trader who profits from accepting that your timing sucks. |
Just get that into your head right now. |
To your success, |
Don Kaufman |
P.S. . Next Tuesday at 2pm ET... I'm doing something I don't usually do. |
I'm hosting a FREE Volatility Summit. |
Where I'm breaking down EXACTLY how I'm trading this chaos. |
The same setups I used to make 4,900% on the VIX last week. |
Normally I keep these sessions behind a paywall... |
But the market's too wild right now to gatekeep this. |
So I'm opening it up for everyone. |
Space is limited though. |
RSVP HERE |
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FREE Black Friday Volatility Summit
November 25th @ 2pm EST | Most traders panic in volatility. | Don Kaufman just made 4,900% on the VIX. | He's revealing EXACTLY how in this one-time summit. | You'll discover:
→ His favorite volatility plays RIGHT NOW
→ How he made $1,970 per contract recently
→ The exact setups he stalks when markets whip
→ How to structure trades that survive chaos | Plus Live Q&A. | Seats are limited. | |
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