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Analog Devices Moves Higher as Super-Cycle Gains Momentum
Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/26/2025.
Key Points
- Analog Devices' Q4 results reveal that the industrial semiconductor supercycle has gained momentum.
- Guidance for Q1 was better than expected and a near-term breakout could be approaching.
- Analysts are leading the market to new highs, which may be reached in early 2026.
Analog Devices (NASDAQ: ADI) is well-positioned to move higher in 2026 and will likely set new all-time highs during the year. Fiscal Q4 and the year-end results for 2025 came in better than expected, suggesting a supercycle in industrial semiconductors is gaining momentum.
The critical takeaway is that growth is accelerating, driven by strength across all semiconductor end markets, which should remain solid for the foreseeable future. Inventories have normalized, and demand surges are emerging that will support pricing, revenue growth and earnings quality for this cash-flow and capital-return machine.
Capital Returns Strengthen the Long-Term Outlook
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Capital returns are central to Analog Devices' stock outlook. The company pays dividends, raises its payout each year and buybacks shares. The dividend yield was just over 1.6% in late 2025, but it's reliable, having grown at roughly a 10% compound annual growth rate.
The payout ratio is about 50% of current-year earnings, with earnings expected to grow at a solid double-digit pace over the next five to seven years. Buybacks are accretive, reducing share count by approximately 1% in Q4, and are expected to continue in the coming years.
Analog Devices Posts Beat-and-Raise Quarter With Strength in All End Markets
Analog Devices reported a strong quarter, with revenue of $3.08 billion, up 26.2% year-over-year (YOY) and accelerating sequentially. Strength came from across end markets: Industrial +34%, Communications +37%, Automotive +19% and Consumer +7%.
The more important news is that higher revenue produced significant operating leverage.
Fixed costs were better absorbed and operational quality improved, resulting in a 190-basis-point increase in adjusted gross margin and a 240-basis-point increase in operating margin.
Earnings climbed, with adjusted earnings per share of $2.26—up 35% YOY—and that momentum is likely to continue.
Analog Devices' initial guidance for fiscal Q1 2026 supports the bullish outlook for the stock.
The company forecasted $3.1 billion in revenue, a slight sequential increase and further acceleration in YOY growth. Revenue and earnings projections are several hundred basis points above analyst consensus and may be conservative given the building momentum.
Analysts Cheer Analog Devices Q4 Results and Guidance
In the hours after the guidance release, several analysts issued positive commentary reaffirming the outlook. The consensus rating is a Moderate Buy, with roughly 12% upside and a bullish tilt in the data. Of the 29 analysts covering ADI, 21 (72%) rate it a Buy, and price-target revisions are trending upward. The most bullish target nears $310, a level that could prove conservative if current trends persist.
Analog Devices' stock also reacted positively to the results, rising about 5% in early trading. The move confirmed support at the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA), constituted a trend-following signal, and leaves the stock poised to reach new highs within days or weeks. A breakout to new highs would end the consolidation and could trigger a quick $40 to $60 advance from the breakout area near $250.
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