Why LVS Stock May Be Near a Tactical Inflection Point
Posted On Dec 29, 2025 by Joshua Enomoto
One of the more remarkable rallies was recently generated by Las Vegas Sands(NYSE: LVS). Throughout much of the year, LVS stock experienced choppy trading conditions, a result of bullish investor sentiment occasionally clashing with macroeconomic concerns. Ahead of the company's third-quarter earnings report, nerves were quite frayed.
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Fortunately for stakeholders, the casino and resorts operator topped earnings and revenue estimates, leading to a 5% jump in LVS stock following the disclosure. Even better, the security showed no signs of stopping. Between the close of October 22 and last Friday, LVS stock gained nearly 31%. For those who follow my work at TipRanks, you'll know that I stated on October 14 that the security represented a buy-the-dip opportunity.
At the time, I focused on the demand structure of LVS stock, noting that over the past 10 weeks, the number of up weeks and down weeks had been evenly split. However, the overall slope during this period was negative. Under such circumstances, the forward 10-week returns tend to lean bullishly.
However, I must admit that I didn't account for the euphoria that an earnings beat would generate. If I could redo things, I would have focused on a much more aggressive trading idea.
Nevertheless, with LVS stock gaining so much ground over the past two months, it may be time to think about securing some profits. In fact, based on the latest quantitative signal I'm seeing, I fear that a downside movement could be in store for Las Vegas Sands.
Implementing a New Framework for LVS Stock
As you might imagine, successful trading in the unforgiving options market requires extensive analysis. In particular, we want to place wagers based on behavioral patterns. However, this term implies multiple trials, which is a difficult concept to rectify as a stock represents a singular journey across time. Further, the price itself is unbounded as it could theoretically rise indefinitely.
Because of these challenges, data conversion is necessary before we can conduct meaningful probabilistic analysis of the equities market. First, price action needs to be converted from a continuous signal to a discrete one. We can accomplish this task through discretization — basically converting price sequences into up and down sessions.
Through discretization, we create data homogeneity. For example, an up session in 2019 would fall under the same category as an up session in 2025. This shared language allows us to have a deep wealth of past analogs from which we generate our probabilistic assessments.
Next, we frame this discretized data under a hierarchical lens. If we took a single 10-week strand of LVS stock price data, the return during this period wouldn't tell us anything about the probability of performance for the other weeks in the dataset. But what if we stacked hundreds of rolling 10-week trials onto a fixed-time distribution? At that point, the most frequent, consistent behaviors would create bulges in probability mass.
These bulges represent risk geometry, which in part tells us the ascendancy of bearish sentiment among sellers. More importantly, this metric identifies the transition where sellers are tempted to become buyers. Therefore, risk geometry gives us insights as to where we can push — and where we should back off.
Regarding LVS stock, its forward 10-week returns are likely to range between roughly $65.20 and $67 (assuming an anchor price of $66.20, Friday's close). Furthermore, price clustering is predominant at around $66.15, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish bias.
However, we're interested in the statistical response to the current quantitative signal, which is the 4-6-U sequence. In the past 10 weeks, LVS stock printed only four up weeks, but with an overall upward slope. Under this setup, forward 10-week outcomes are expected to range between $58 and $69, with price clustering likely to occur at $64.
Using Risk Topography to Narrow Down a Trade
Based on the market intelligence above, you may be tempted to just consider targeting the $64 zone, but there's an obvious problem. LVS stock options are priced in intervals of $2.50, meaning that the closest bear put spread strategy would feature a second-leg strike of $65.
For a nearer-term expiration date, such as Jan. 16, 2026, there are a few bear put spreads with a $65 second-leg strike that feature payouts above 100%. However, if you were to push out to Feb. 20, the maximum payouts would land between 54% and 66% at the time of writing. That's okay, but not great.
To help pick an appropriate trade, options traders should consider Las Vegas Sands' risk topography, a framework that charts probability mass in three-dimensional space. Using this approach, we can clearly see not only projected areas of heightened activities but also their probabilistic depth relative to each other.
In the case of LVS stock, activity is projected to be heaviest at around $64. However, at around $62, past analogs suggest that a secondary cluster of activity could materialize. Therefore, if we were to cap our upside reward at $65 and LVS drops to $62, we would end up absorbing an opportunity cost.
A better idea may be to target the 62.50/65.00 bear put spread expiring Feb. 20, 2026. With this wager, the breakeven price would land at $63.80, which is right where heightened activity is set to emerge. Essentially, the structure of this trade suggests that speculators would have a strong chance of not losing money.
Further, the second leg of the bear put spread extending out to $62 would allow you to be in contention for outsized rewards if LVS stock manages to trigger the downside threshold at expiration. Indeed, the maximum payout would clock in at over 108%.
Using Data Science to Drive Home a Trade
Please keep in mind that none of the above implies that Las Vegas Sands is a bad business. Rather, it's just that the market is non-ergodic and reflexive — and it's quite easy for enthusiasm to get out of hand. Based on the empirical data, LVS stock could be due for a mild correction. Therefore, a bear put spread extracted through careful data science may entice astute, numbers-driven speculators.
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