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Special Report

Will the Fed Cut or Pause? These Finance Stocks Can Win Either Way

By Chris Markoch. Originally Published: 12/31/2025.

Quick Look

Three financial stocks are positioned to benefit whether the Fed pauses or cuts interest rates in 2026.
BAC, SCHW, and PRU offer different revenue drivers—from lending to fees to insurance—to navigate shifting monetary policy.
These stocks show improving trends in earnings, price momentum, and income potential, making them attractive options for long-term investors.

Will they or won't they? Stocks climbed in the fourth quarter of 2025 after the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates. Investors, however, are still asking what comes next: cuts, pauses—or something in between. Even Fed officials remain divided on the next move.

Arguments for cutting include that looser monetary policy tends to be bullish: lower borrowing costs for businesses can boost investment and hiring, potentially reversing current weakness.

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Income investors may find dividend-paying stocks more attractive relative to Treasuries and other fixed-income instruments.

There's also the matter of the national debt. The U.S. Treasury must refinance more than $10 trillion of debt over the next 12 months, so lower rates would be highly desirable.

On the other hand, inflation remains a concern: although it is slowing, it is still above the Fed's 2% target.

So far, two rate cuts haven't triggered a jump in inflation, but it's too early to declare victory. Many stimulative provisions from the "One Big Beautiful Bill" take effect in 2026, and—as investors observed in 2020—when consumers have more money they tend to spend.

Those questions will begin to be addressed at the first Federal Reserve meeting in January. Until then, it makes sense to look at stocks that are solid buys whether the Fed cuts further or pauses. Finance stocks will be one sector to watch. Here are three candidates.

Built to Monetize Either Side of the Rate Cycle

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) offers a scaled, diversified banking platform designed to monetize both sides of the rate cycle. Management has shown it can control deposit costs without materially destabilizing the franchise. That capability matters if policy rates drift lower more slowly than markets have anticipated.

The bank's technology and AI investments are intended to expand operating leverage over time. That means modest top‑line growth can still translate into attractive earnings and capital returns, supporting a long‑term buy‑and‑hold case.

BAC is up about 25% in 2025 and is trading in a bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows, finding support above its 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Analysts' consensus price target implies roughly 8% upside, supported by expectations for earnings growth of around 17% over the next 12 months.

A Fee-Driven Model Over Traditional Lending

Charles Schwab Corp. (NYSE: SCHW) is another way to play strong U.S. households and markets. Unlike large banks, Schwab is less reliant on risky loans and earns most of its revenue from interest on client cash, trading fees, and advisory services.

This asset‑light business model is easier to grow across different economic conditions. As rates calm and customers return to more normal behavior, Schwab's profits could become steadier. With more assets on the platform and rising fee income, Charles Schwab may appeal to investors who prefer a fee-driven financial company over one built on heavy lending.

SCHW is up about 35% in 2025 despite a steep pullback following the company's third‑quarter earnings—an event that nonetheless beat on both the top and bottom lines. The stock recovered to an all‑time high before cooling off slightly from overbought levels. Analysts remain bullish (see forecast), supported by expected earnings growth near 23%.

Defensive Income With Long-Term Growth Tailwinds

Prudential Financial Inc. (NYSE: PRU) provides exposure to insurance and retirement services—businesses that can benefit from higher long-term interest rates, an aging population, and greater demand for guaranteed-income products.

Prudential often sees increased demand when markets are uncertain because customers seek stability. Its large investment portfolio also benefits from today's higher interest rates compared with the 2010s. That combination of steady income, downside protection, and long-term savings growth sets Prudential apart from banks and brokerages.

PRU is down about 3.9% year-to-date in 2025, but it finished the year strong—up roughly 9.8% late in December—forming a golden cross in mid‑December. Investors will want to watch whether the stock can hold above its 50‑day SMA.

Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, timing, proper execution, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk.