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This Week's Bonus Content With New CEOs, Is Walmart or Target the Better Buy Going Forward?By Jordan Chussler. Originally Published: 2/5/2026. 
Key Takeaways- Consumer staples have been the third-best performing sector so far in 2026.
- After 12 years at the helm, Doug McMillon has retired, with John Furner taking over as CEO of Walmart in the wake of the company’s stock gaining more than 28%.
- Michael Fiddelke takes over as CEO of embattled Target, whose social issues fallout has contributed to the company’s stock losing more than 17% over the past year.
After gaining less than 4% in 2025 and finishing second-worst among the S&P 500's 11 sectors, consumer staples stocks are staging a comeback this year. Just over a month into 2026, the consumer staples sector has posted a gain of nearly 9%, trailing only the energy and materials sectors' gains of roughly 12% and 10%, respectively. The Wall Street Journal is asking whether a stock market crash is coming. Research from Weiss Ratings suggests the first half of 2026 could be very tough for certain stocks as a radical shift hits the market. Some of America's most popular names could take serious damage. Analysts have identified five stocks you should consider avoiding before this event plays out. If these are in your portfolio, you'll want to review your positions carefully. See the five stocks to avoid and learn what's driving this shift. While the rotation out of tech has benefited those defensive sectors, the year-to-date (YTD) performances of two of America's largest retailers have helped as well. Target (NYSE: TGT) and Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT) have posted YTD gains of about 11% and more than 13%, respectively. With both corporations now under new leadership, investors can make arguments in favor of either name as they hope consumer staples' early success this year continues. Walmart Picks a Familiar Face to Succeed McMillonAfter a more than 24% gain in 2025, Walmart joined the $1 trillion market-cap club on Tuesday, Feb. 3—just three days into the tenure of newly appointed president and CEO John Furner. Furner, who took the reins on Feb. 1, follows Doug McMillon, Walmart's fifth CEO, who led the company for 12 years after starting there as a 17-year-old summer stock associate in 1984. McMillon oversaw Walmart's digital transformation, helping make membership-based Walmart+ a meaningful competitor to Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) while keeping Sam's Club competitive with Costco (NASDAQ: COST). When Walmart reports its Q4 fiscal year 2026 (FY2026) earnings on Feb. 19, it will reflect McMillon's final quarter as CEO—a legacy Furner will look to build on, including 14 earnings and revenue beats in the past 16 quarters. Furner, who began at Walmart as an hourly associate in 1993, will aim to continue his predecessor's strong EPS growth, which registered 44.08% and 26.18% over the past two years. Perhaps Furner's biggest challenges will be sustaining Walmart's recent growth while successfully integrating AI across the business. For income-focused investors, the company's dividend track record is appealing: the Dividend King has increased its payout for 53 consecutive years, maintains a payout ratio below 33%, and has an annualized five-year dividend growth rate of 3.17%. Target's New CEO Faces an Uphill BattleBy contrast, new Target CEO Michael Fiddelke—previously the company's COO—has a more challenging landscape to navigate after taking over on Feb. 1. Outgoing CEO Brian Cornell stepped down after 14 years, the latter part of which was marked by disappointing financial performance driven by weaker consumer sentiment, a struggling grocery business that has ceded shoppers to competitors like Walmart and Costco, and a prolonged slump in higher-margin discretionary goods amid inflationary pressures. The result: Target shares are more than 57% below their five-year high from August 2021, compounded by revenue declines in 2023 and 2024 and negative EPS in 2024. Target has missed earnings expectations in three of the past seven quarters and missed revenue estimates in five of those quarters. For patient investors who view Target's forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.80 as a sign of future upside, the stock—also a Dividend King—yields 4.10% versus peers' 0.74% and has an annualized five-year dividend growth rate of 11.30%. What Analysts Think of Walmart and TargetGiven Walmart's recent performance and the inelastic demand profile of consumer staples, analysts are largely bullish: 32 of 34 covering the stock assign it a Buy rating. Still, Walmart's average 12-month price target of $123.93 implies roughly 3% downside from current levels. By comparison, the majority of the 34 analysts covering Target give it a Hold rating, and the consensus 12-month price target of $103.21 suggests more than 7% potential downside. Short-interest figures reflect greater downside skepticism for Target—currently 3.79% of the float—versus Walmart's relatively low short interest of 0.50%. Institutional activity tells a mixed story: Target's institutional ownership is nearly 80%, and that smart money has corresponded with more than $12 billion in inflows over the past 12 months (versus just under $7 billion in outflows). Meanwhile, Walmart's institutional ownership is lower at under 27%, but it has seen more than $52 billion in inflows over the past 12 months—well above roughly $24 billion in outflows. On MarketBeat's rankings, Target scores higher than 87% of evaluated companies, ranking 43rd out of 201 in the retail/wholesale sector; Walmart ranks 86th out of 201 and scores higher than 72%. Walmart's notable edge lies in its TradeSmith financial health score: the company has been in the Green Zone for more than nine months, while Target has spent most of the past year in the Red Zone.
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