Let's dig into it...
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Click here to fix that… | | | Good morning: | We have a huge morning ahead of us, and I want to make sure you are locked in before the data drops. | At 8:30 this morning, we are getting the GDP and PCE double header. | This is the most important economic data print of the entire week. | Q4 GDP is expected to be around 3%, but that number includes the longest government shutdown in history, so there will be some noise to sort through. | The bigger deal is PCE, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. | Expectations are pointing toward a hotter reading driven by goods prices, and that matters because it directly impacts how many rate cuts the market can price in for the rest of 2026. | If PCE comes in hot, the two-cut camp wins. If it comes in cool, the three-cut camp gets loud. Either way, this number will move markets today. | But the data is only half the story. | The Wall Street Journal is reporting that President Trump is weighing a limited military strike against Iran to force it back to the nuclear negotiating table. | He has given Iran a 15-day deadline, and the word "limited" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that report. | The hedge funds are already net selling. Defense names are catching bids. And the weekend risk here is real. | If something happens between Friday's close and Monday's open, you want to be prepared. That is exactly why we are covering it this morning. | Gold hit $5,042, and it is holding. Silver is surging to $81. Goldman Sachs sees significant upside through call options, and the haven bid is not going away anytime soon. | Between Iran fears, Fed uncertainty, and central bank buying, this is the biggest macro trade of 2026. If you are not positioned in gold or gold miners, this is a conversation you need to be having. | This is a Friday when you need to be paying attention. | The data drops at 8:30, and between Iran, gold, PCE, and NVDA earnings next week, there is a lot to position around. | We're going to break it all down this morning, walk through the watchlist, give you next week's calendar, and make sure you are set up heading into the weekend. | | Join us at 8:45 AM ET on TheoTrade. | I'll see you there. | Garrett |
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