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I just got off air with Schwab, and I had to get this out immediately. |
The market's in full volatility mode right now. |
Up 300. Down 400. Back up 200. |
And here's the thing — in this kind of environment, you don't need to be bullish or bearish. |
You just need to be positioned. |
I walked through three setups on air today that are setting up for violent moves — regardless of where the broader market goes. |
Let me give you the breakdown: |
Setup #1: The Four-Week Bloodbath That's About to Bounce (Then Roll Over) |
This one's been absolutely pummeled. |
Four consecutive weeks of unrelenting selling. No bounces. No relief rallies. Just straight down. |
And that's exactly why I'm interested. |
Here's what nobody's talking about: this thing is so oversold right now that a snapback is almost guaranteed in the near term. |
But I'm not playing the bounce. |
I'm playing the fade after the bounce. |
Because the trend here is crystal clear. This isn't a reversal — it's a breather before the next leg down. |
Yesterday's rally was perfectly correlated with the S&P surge. Every single stock moved up — including this one. |
And I'm using that rip as an opportunity to position for the next leg lower. |
Shallow duration. Defined risk. Positioned for the continuation. |
If you see this one bounce over the next few days, don't chase it. Fade it. |
Setup #2: The Sector That's Up 40% for All the Wrong Reasons |
This sector has been on an absolute tear. |
Up nearly 40% year-to-date. One of the only sectors that ended March in positive territory. |
But here's the problem: it's all geopolitical risk premium. And the second people start hearing about $4+ gas and cutting back on driving... |
Demand destruction kicks in. |
That's the phrase everyone's about to start using. And when demand destruction becomes the narrative, this sector doesn't just pullback — it collapses. |
I'm not waiting for the news cycle to catch up. I'm positioning for the rollover right now. |
Near-term expiration. At-the-money spread. Looking for the quick drop as reality sets in. |
This one's already falling as I type this. |
Setup #3: The Tech Giant That's Losing Its Cool |
This one hurts to say. |
But the company that built the entire ecosystem... is losing the thing that made it unstoppable in the first place. |
Its cool. |
My own 13-year-old asked if he could switch to Android. My own kid. |
And if Gen Alpha is willing to be the green bubble in somebody's phone... you've got a structural problem. |
The tech is lagging. The AI integration is embarrassing. The innovation pipeline is dry. |
And if it breaks through one key level — the 250 mark — I think it's going to unravel fast. |
I'm giving myself duration on this one. June expiration. Way out-of-the-money put spread. |
This isn't a short-term trade. This is a structural thesis. |
And if that level breaks, the flood gates open. |
The volatility is here. The setups are here. And I just walked through all three on Schwab. |
I'm not guessing at direction. I'm identifying setups where the structure is obvious once you strip away the noise. |
A four-week selloff that's due for a bounce? That's not a buy. That's a fade setup. |
A sector up 40% on geopolitical fear while demand is about to crater? That's not momentum. That's a rollover waiting to happen. |
A tech giant that can't innovate its way out of a paper bag and kids are abandoning the platform? That's not a dip to buy. That's a break waiting to collapse. |
⇒ WATCH THE FULL BREAKDOWN HERE |
Don't blame the messenger. |
To your success,
Don Kaufman |
P.S. This morning I closed TSLA for 120% and AVGO for 101% Both took 1 day to close. Still not sure about Superfly? Check this out. |
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