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Special Report
Intel Went From Market Reject to Musk's AI Partner — What Happens Next?Written by Sam Quirke. Article Posted: 4/13/2026. 
Key Points
- Intel has surged more than 220% since last summer and 50% since the end of March, with the latest leg driven by its involvement in Elon Musk’s Terafab AI chip project.
- Partnering with Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI has boosted its credibility, but analysts remain split on how much near-term upside remains.
- With shares starting to look overbought ahead of earnings, the setup might lean toward caution rather than exuberance.
- Special Report: Elon Musk’s $1 Quadrillion AI IPO
Tech giant Intel Corp (NASDAQ: INTC) has staged one of the most dramatic turnarounds in the market over the past couple of quarters. After trading at multi-year lows this time last year and becoming a byword for disappointment, Intel shares are now approaching a five-year high — up more than 220% since last August. Gains have accelerated recently, with the stock adding roughly 50% since the end of March alone. The latest leg higher was driven by news this week that Intel is joining Elon Musk’s Terafab AI chip production project alongside his Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA), SpaceX, and xAI companies. That development has injected new excitement into the story, putting Intel at the center of one of the most ambitious artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure initiatives currently under construction.
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The question now is whether this renewed momentum still has room to run, or whether the stock has already priced in much of the upside ahead of its next earnings report on April 23. Let’s take a closer look. A Narrative Shift Is UnderwayWhile this week’s Terafab update is significant, the most important change over the past year has been a shift in perception around Intel’s foundry business. What was once viewed as a long-term, uncertain turnaround effort is increasingly framed as a credible path back to relevance in the semiconductor industry. Intel Foundry Services gaining traction as a supplier in the broader AI ecosystem is evidence of that shift. Once treated as an “also-ran,” Intel has re-entered conversations about the next phase of technology growth instead of being written off as unable to keep pace with younger, more nimble peers. That narrative change has driven a significant re-pricing in the stock, even though many underlying improvements remain in their early stages. Terafab Has Put Intel Back in the SpotlightStill, this week’s Terafab announcement has been a clear catalyst for the bulls. Intel’s involvement alongside Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI has helped ease bearish concerns about its turnaround and effectively validates its potential role in the emerging AI supply chain. The decision by some of the most aggressive players in AI to work with Intel signals the company is being taken seriously at the highest levels. Considering that Intel shares jumped nearly 20% after the news broke, the market is clearly reacting. Analysts, however, remain divided. KeyCorp has leaned into the opportunity, reiterating its Buy rating and raising its price target to $70 — a level that still implies meaningful upside ahead of the company’s earnings report. Others, including Cantor Fitzgerald and Wells Fargo, have taken a more cautious stance, issuing Hold-equivalent ratings that reflect uncertainty about how quickly this narrative shift will translate into financial results. The Rally Has Moved Faster Than the FundamentalsFrom a fundamentals perspective, the skeptics have a point. Intel’s story has improved substantially since last year, but the stock has moved even faster than the underlying progress. A roughly 220% rally, and a roughly 50% surge since the end of March, suggest a significant amount of optimism is already priced in. The Terafab news has accelerated that move, but it has also raised expectations at a time when much of the company’s progress is still nascent. Key elements of the bull case — including the success of the foundry business and the economics of projects like Terafab — remain largely unproven. Execution risk is still meaningful, and the path to realizing the full potential of these initiatives has yet to be clarified. That creates an exciting but potentially risky situation: a strong emerging narrative with fundamentals still catching up. Earnings Will Be the Next Major TestIntel’s next earnings report, due April 23, will be closely watched. After such a sharp run higher, investors will look for confirmation that the narrative shift is backed not just by management’s vision but by tangible progress. If Intel can demonstrate that progress, the rally could extend further, supported by both momentum and improving fundamentals. In that scenario, many investors view the stock as still undervalued and consider it a buy ahead of the report. Conversely, the risk of a meaningful pullback would increase if the report disappoints. For investors on the sidelines, that makes for an interesting setup: the long-term opportunity may be increasingly compelling, but near-term volatility could outweigh the potential for immediate gains. |
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