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This Week's Bonus Content
Lululemon Stock Trades at 2018 Levels Despite Record Revenue: Time to Buy?Submitted by Sam Quirke. Posted: 4/15/2026. 
Key Points
- Lululemon is down nearly 70% from its all-time high but is starting to stabilize after a recent bounce.
- A compressed P/E ratio of 12 and decent underlying performance are creating an attractive risk/reward setup.
- Even neutral-rated analysts have price targets that imply meaningful upside, suggesting the stock may be heavily oversold at current levels.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Shares of athleisure giant Lululemon Athletica Inc (NASDAQ: LULU) are trading just above $160, roughly 10% higher than the multi-year lows hit in late March. While that bounce is encouraging, it hasn’t altered the bigger picture: the stock remains about 28% below its December highs and nearly 70% off its all-time peak, making Lululemon one of the more painful holds in retail and apparel over the past couple of years. For investors who rode through that selloff, the pain is understandable. But for those watching from the sidelines, the setup looks more interesting. Let’s take a closer look at why this could become a compelling buying opportunity. A Sharp Decline That Might Have Gone Too Far
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Lululemon’s selloff has been driven largely by fading confidence in its growth trajectory, especially in North America. What was once a steady engine of expansion has slowed, prompting concerns about market saturation and shifting consumer preferences. At the same time, the market’s appetite for premium consumer names has cooled. Investors are less willing to pay up for growth when that growth shows signs of decelerating, and that shift in sentiment has significantly compressed Lululemon’s valuation over the past year. The result: a company that was priced for perfection at the end of 2023 now trades near 2018 levels despite reporting record revenues. Increasing competition in the athleisure space and changing consumer habits have also challenged the brand, forcing Lululemon to adapt from disruptor to incumbent. The Business Is Holding Up Better Than the StockImportantly, the underlying business hasn't deteriorated to the extent the share price implies. Lululemon has continued to top analyst expectations — both in December and again last month, when it reported record quarterly revenues. Management’s 2026 Action Plan appears to be gaining traction. The company is focused on reaccelerating North American growth through product innovation, faster development cycles and improved operational efficiency aimed at bringing back high-value customers. Meanwhile, international markets are an important offset: China growth remains healthy, and the company’s entry into India adds another long-term growth avenue. This geographic diversification reduces reliance on North America and supports a more balanced growth profile. Taken together, these factors suggest that while the valuation has been under pressure, the fundamentals are far from broken. Valuation and Analyst Targets Highlight the OpportunityThe disconnect between price and fundamentals is apparent in Lululemon’s valuation. The stock trades at roughly a 12X price-to-earnings ratio, near multi-year lows and well below the ~18X multiple from this time last year. For a company producing record revenue, that gap suggests the shares may be oversold. Recent analyst updates underscore the point. JPMorgan Chase and Robert Baird, among others, have held Neutral (or equivalent) ratings but carry price targets of $196 and $190, respectively — comfortably above LULU’s current price near $160. Even from cautious stances, those targets imply roughly 20% or more upside. When even conservative analysts see meaningful upside, it’s a sign the market may be pricing in excessive pessimism. Early Signs of a Bottom, But Risks RemainThe recent bounce off multi-year lows suggests selling pressure may be easing. While it’s still early, that kind of price action can mark the first stages of a bottom, especially when paired with stable fundamentals and improving sentiment. That said, this is not a risk-free trade. The stock remains in a downtrend, and it will take more than a short-term rally to reverse that pattern. Lululemon needs to continue delivering solid quarterly results and rebuild confidence that its turnaround strategy is working. If management can demonstrate sustained progress in the coming months, the setup could look very different — and fairly attractive — to investors seeking a potential ground-floor entry in a recovery rally. But be prepared for continued volatility as that story plays out. |
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