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Exclusive Article from MarketBeat
From Zepbound to Foundayo: Lilly's Latest Results Support Oral GLP-1 OutlookReported by Leo Miller. Published: 5/20/2026. 
Key Points
- Eli Lilly saw a huge gain after its recent earnings report, but the wins didn't stop there
- Lilly also recently got a boost after releasing strong results for its oral GLP-1, Foundayo
- The data provides evidence that Foundayo is effective in helping keep lost weight off, supporting an emerging growth vertical for Lilly
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Shares of Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY), the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical stock, started 2026 on the wrong foot. By the end of April, LLY shares had fallen as much as 20%. However, the stock has rebounded sharply since then. Lilly’s highly impressive earnings report kicked off the rally, with shares surging nearly 10% in a single day. Lilly has continued to grind higher and is now down only around 5% in 2026.
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One recent catalyst for Lilly’s stock was the latest results for its oral GLP-1 medication, Foundayo. While Foundayo is already approved by the Food and Drug Administration, the need for continued testing does not end there. By generating more robust and more varied data on the medication, Lilly can improve the odds that doctors prescribe it. Lilly’s latest results support this important goal. Foundayo’s 2-Pronged Attack: Needle Fear Patients and Maintenance PatientsThe trial in question focuses on weight-loss maintenance, helping patients keep lost weight off after they stop taking high-dose GLP-1s. For Lilly, this is part of a two-pronged strategy to generate demand for Foundayo. The first part is aimed at attracting entirely new patients. Researchers estimate that up to 25% of U.S. adults have a fear of needles, preventing some patients who want to lose weight from taking injectable GLP-1s. Through pill-based medications, Lilly can unlock demand from this patient group. However, Lilly is falling behind Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO) on oral uptake, as Novo received approval for its oral weight-loss drug several months earlier. Novo’s pill has also shown efficacy that modestly exceeds Foundayo. Novo notes an average weight loss of 14% after 64 weeks among patients taking the Wegovy pill. This compares with an average weight loss of 12.4% after 72 weeks for Foundayo. According to BMO Capital Markets, “While Foundayo scripts have been trending upward since launch in April, scripts have lagged vs. those of the Wegovy Pill and Street expectations.” However, Lilly may be able to differentiate itself more effectively in the second prong of its strategy: weight-loss maintenance. Injectables are more effective than either pill, with Lilly touting an average weight loss of 20.2% at 72 weeks for patients using Zepbound. That means patients can transition to pills after losing significant weight on injectables in order to help keep the weight off. With this approach, Lilly can drive recurring sales of Foundayo as patients make the switch. Its latest Foundayo results offered encouraging data on this front. Foundayo: Weight Loss Maintenance Improves Dramatically Versus Going Cold TurkeyIn its ATTAIN-MAINTAIN trial, Lilly looked at patients who had lost significant weight by taking Zepbound. During the Zepbound phase, patients lost an average of 55 lbs. Patients then transitioned to Foundayo for 52 weeks, regaining back 11 lbs. So, when using Foundayo as a maintenance treatment, patients regained only 20% of their original weight loss. This is a strong result, as patients who stop GLP-1s completely tend to regain much more weight. A recent analysis of 48 studies found that after one year off GLP-1s, patients regained 60% of their original weight loss. In other words, the amount of weight loss preserved in Lilly’s study was three times higher than among those who stopped GLP-1 treatment altogether. Lilly also ran the same test with patients who had originally lost 41 lbs by taking injectable Wegovy. After switching to Foundayo for 52 weeks, these patients regained just 2 lbs—another very strong result. In the end, Zepbound-to-Foundayo patients lost 17.2% of their weight, and Wegovy-to-Foundayo patients lost 15.5% of their weight on average. Clearly, these results suggest that transitioning to Foundayo after taking injectables can be an effective way to help keep lost weight off. Notably, on the day of this data release, Lilly's shares rose by 2.4%. There is also reason to believe that Foundayo will have broader appeal as a weight-loss maintenance treatment than the Wegovy pill. This is because it comes with no dietary restrictions. Meanwhile, doctors advise Wegovy pill patients not to eat or drink for 30 minutes after taking the medication. Ultimately, the convenience of pills is a key reason patients may want to switch from injectables. With no dietary restrictions, Lilly has an advantage here. However, it will be interesting to see whether Novo conducts a similar maintenance study that could shift the playing field in this segment. Analysts Forecast Substantial Upside in Lilly After Recent ReboundOverall, targeting the weight-loss maintenance market is one of many levers Eli Lilly can pull to continue growing its GLP-1 business. Notably, even with Lilly down less than 10% from its all-time high, Wall Street analysts continue to forecast substantial gains ahead. The MarketBeat consensus price target on the stock sits near $1,218, implying upside of just over 20%. |
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