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Additional Reading from MarketBeat.com
Freeport-McMoRan: Grasberg Restarts, Now the Real Work BeginsAuthored by Chris Markoch. Publication Date: 4/24/2026. 
Key Points
- Freeport stock fell over 10% as Grasberg production targets were cut despite an earlier-than-expected restart.
- Strong copper and gold prices continue to support the company’s long-term earnings outlook.
- Analysts remain bullish, suggesting the pullback could present an opportunity for patient investors.
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Mining stocks can be complex investments. But the structural case for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX) heading into earnings was straightforward. Unfortunately, that’s why FCX plunged more than 12% after delivering its report. The chief issue is the company’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Investors will recall that a mud rush at the mine forced a suspension of operations.
The good news in this report was that Freeport was able to commence initial mining in March, beating its prior estimate for a restart sometime in the current quarter. The bad news is that production guidance was lowered. In January, Freeport had targeted 100,000 tons per day (t/d) by the second half of the year; that has been revised to 60,000 t/d in the same time frame and to 90,000 t/d by the second quarter of 2027. The culprit is an increase in “wet drawpoints,” which will require modifications that are expected to run through March 2027. Copper and Gold Prices Strengthen the Long-Term Bull CaseThe Grasberg ramp-up is an issue to watch closely. But is it a reason for a 12% sell-off? One reason to believe the stock can recover is the outlook for copper, which is particularly strong. Demand for copper is at record levels and is expected to rise over the next few years. That’s lifting prices: copper averaged $5.78 per pound in Q1 2026, up from $4.44 in Q1 2025 — roughly a 30% increase. Freeport is more than a copper story. The company also mines gold, which is trading at $4,889 an ounce as of this writing, up from $3,072 an ounce in April 2025. By 2030, Freeport projects producing up to 1.7 billion pounds of copper from Grasberg, along with about 1.2 million ounces of gold. If current prices hold — and many forecasts show them moving higher — gold helps cover costs and copper production drives earnings upside. Freeport’s Earnings Show Strength Beyond GrasbergFreeport’s Q1 2026 earnings report was solid, if mixed. Earnings per share (EPS) of $0.57 beat estimates of $0.47, while revenue came in light at $6.23 billion versus expectations near $6.4 billion. The year-over-year picture is stronger: revenue rose from $5.7 billion in Q1 2025 to about $6.2 billion, and adjusted EBITDA improved from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion. For investors, this shows that while Grasberg matters, the rest of Freeport’s portfolio remains resilient. That suggests Grasberg’s recovery is likely to contribute incremental earnings growth rather than being the sole driver already priced into FCX. Indonesia Agreement Removes a Key OverhangAdding to the long-term bull case is reduced friction with the Indonesian government. Freeport signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) in February extending operating clarity in the Grasberg district beyond the 2041 expiration. Under the deal, Freeport retains its current 48.76% ownership stake in PT Freeport Indonesia through 2041, then transfers an additional 12% to the government at no cost, leaving it with roughly 37% from 2042 onward. That long-standing overhang has been a source of uncertainty, and the MOU gives more certainty to the long-term production story. Is the Post-Earnings Sell-Off a Buying Opportunity?In the weeks leading up to earnings, analysts were mostly bullish on FCX. Many new price targets sit above the consensus target of $65.66, and 18 of the 22 analysts tracked on MarketBeat rate the stock a Buy. Furthermore, institutions continue to buy, and analysts are forecasting roughly 35% earnings growth over the next 12 months. That makes the company’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 24X look relatively attractive. FCX has a history of pulling back after earnings, so this may partly be history repeating itself — especially for a stock that is still up more than 64% over the past 12 months even after this decline. That said, the sell-off appears overdone. It could be a case of a decent but not exceptional report arriving on a day when the broader market was weak, which can create a buying opportunity for patient investors. The downside risk: FCX could test roughly $52, which aligns with its 150-day simple moving average (SMA). The post-earnings drop occurred on high volume, indicating conviction behind the selling. FCX followed a similar path in September/October 2025, dipping below the 150-day SMA before recovering — a move that would have represented another roughly 15% decline, not unusual for commodity-levered names. However, the 150-day SMA is still sloping upward, and copper prices remain supportive. If FCX can hold support around its 50-day SMA, the stock could retest the current consensus price targets as the Grasberg ramp-up progresses. |
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