I'm watching a potential lower-low-to-higher-low sequence forming off the $349 base. If MSFT can hold above that level and start building higher lows into earnings, the pattern shifts from bearish continuation to potential base-building. But if $349 breaks? The chart points toward $320–$330 and there's not much structural support between here and there. This is a two-sided setup. I want to be straight with you about that. The Squeeze Is Loading Into Late July Earnings This is what I'm focused on most. After a 20% single-month decline, volatility has compressed. The stock is now grinding sideways in a tightening range between roughly $367 and $375. Bollinger Bands are narrowing. The spring is coiling. And the timer is right there on the calendar: July 29 earnings. That's three and a half weeks away. Every day that passes without a directional move is another red dot stacking on the squeeze indicator. The energy is building. And when Microsoft reports (Azure growth numbers, Copilot monetization data, guidance on that $190 billion capex plan) this squeeze fires. The direction depends on what they say. But the magnitude of the move? The squeeze is already telling you it's going to be significant. One More Thing: The Form 4s According to recent SEC filings, insiders have sold $10.5 million worth of MSFT shares over the past three months, with 13 distinct insiders executing transactions totaling a net negative capital flow of nearly $144 million. The lone bright spot: director John W. Stanton made an open-market purchase of 5,000 shares back in February at $397.35, before the June selloff. That's one buyer against a wall of sellers. Not the insider picture you want to see if you're leaning bullish. Your Action Plan MSFT is a squeeze setup with a hard catalyst date and a messy insider picture. That tells me one thing: patience. I'm not chasing this in either direction before earnings. What I am doing is watching $349 as the line in the sand. Hold it through July and the base-building thesis has a chance. Lose it and the squeeze fires downward hard. The business is great. The chart is complicated. And July 29 is going to tell us which one wins. I'll be watching. If you want to follow along in real time, join me in Daily Profits Live, where we've closed nearly 70 trades this month, with a win rate of 76%. |
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