China Focused ETF Trending Down

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March 14th, 2022 China Focused ETF Trending Down Dear Reader, On Friday, we looked at a Daily Price Chart of Westlake Chemical Corp., noting that the stock’s 24/52 Day MACD is trading above the 18-Day EMA signaling a ‘Buy’. For today’s Trade of the Day e-letter we will be looking at a monthly chart for the iShares China Large-Cap ETF, symbol: FXI. Before breaking down FXI’s monthly chart let’s first review the investment objective of the ETF. The FXI ETF generally will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of its underlying index. The index designed to measure the performance of the largest companies in the Chinese equity market that trade on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong and are available to international investors. Now, let’s begin to break down the monthly chart for the FXI ETF. Below is a 10-Month Simple Moving Average chart for FXI. Sell FXI As the chart shows, in July 2021, the FXI 1-Month Price, crossed below the 10-Month simple moving average (SMA). This crossover indicated the selling pressure for FXI exceeded the buying pressure. For this kind of crossover to occur, an ETF has to be in a strong bearish downtrend. Now, as you can see, the 1-Month Price is still below the 10-Month SMA. That means the bearish trend is still in play!  As long as the 1-Month price remains below the 10-Month SMA, the ETF is more likely to keep trading at new lows and put options should be purchased. Our initial price target for FXI is 26.25 per share. 77.0% Profit Potential for FXI Option Now, since FXI’s 1-Month Price is trading below the 10-Month SMA this means the ETF’s bearish decline will likely continue. Let’s use the Hughes Optioneering calculator to look at the potential returns for a FXI put option purchase. The Put Option Calculator will calculate the profit/loss potential for a put option trade based on the price change of the underlying stock/ETF at option expiration in this example from a flat FXI price to a 12.5% decrease. The Optioneering Team uses the 1% Rule to select an option strike price with a higher percentage of winning trades. In the following FXI option example, we used the 1% Rule to select the FXI option strike price but out of fairness to our paid option service subscribers we don’t list the strike price used in the profit/loss calculation. Trade with Higher Accuracy When you use the 1% Rule to select a FXI in-the-money option strike price, FXI only has to decrease 1% for the option to breakeven and start profiting! Remember, if you purchase an at-the-money or out-of-the-money put option and the underlying ETF closes flat at option expiration it will result in a 100% loss for your option trade! In this example, if the FXI ETF is flat at 29.07 at option expiration, it will only result in a 4.2% loss for the FXI option compared to a 100% loss for an at-the-money or out-of-the-money put option. Using the 1% Rule to select an option strike price can result in a higher percentage of winning trades compared to at-the-money or out-of-the-money put options. This higher accuracy can give you the discipline needed to become a successful option trader and can help avoid 100% losses when trading options. The goal of this example is to demonstrate the powerful profit potential available from trading options compared to ETFs. The prices and returns represented below were calculated based on the current ETF and option pricing for FXI on 3/11/2022 before commissions. When you purchase a put option, there is no limit on the profit potential of the put if the underlying ETF continues to decline in price. For this specific put option, the calculator analysis below reveals if the FXI ETF decreases 5.0% at option expiration to 27.62 (circled), the put option would make 36.4% before commission. If the FXI ETF decreases 10.0% at option expiration to 26.16 (circled), the put option would make 77.0% before commission and greatly outperform the ETF return. The leverage provided by put options allows you to maximize potential returns on bearish ETFs. The Hughes Optioneering Team is here to help you identify winning trades just like this one. Interested in accessing the Optioneering Calculators? Join one of Chuck's Trading Services for unlimited access! The Optioneering Team has option calculators for six different option strategies that allow you to calculate the profit potential for an option trade before you take the trade. Get Chuck's Trades Sent to You! Do you want to start receiving hand-picked trades from 10-Time Trading Champion, Chuck Hughes? As a Trade of the Day subscriber, Chuck is offering you a special discount on his Weekly Option Alert Trading Service. Just call Brad at 1-866-661-5664 or 1-310-647-5664 to join and use the code "Optioneering VIP" to receive special pricing! Click the button below to schedule a call!                                Wishing You the Best in Investing Success, Chuck Hughes Editor, Trade of the Day Have any questions? Email us at dailytrade@chuckstod.com   If you didn't create an account using this email address, please ignore this email or unsubscribe. To ensure delivery of this email to your inbox and to enable images to load in future mailings, please add todaystrade@chuckstod.com to your e-mail address book or safe senders list. © 2021 Tradewins Publishing. All rights reserved. The information provided by the newsletters, trading, training and educational products related to various markets (collectively referred to as the "Services") is not customized or personalized to any particular risk profile or tolerance. Nor is the information published by Legacy Publishing, LLC ("Legacy") a customized or personalized recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or invest in particular financial products. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and is not appropriate for everyone. The actual profit results presented here may vary with the actual profit results presented in other Legacy Publishing LLC publications due to the different strategies and time frames presented in other publications. Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Other than the refund policy detailed elsewhere, Legacy does not make any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using the Services. Legacy disclaims any and all liability for any investment or trading loss sustained by a subscriber. You should trade or invest only 'risk capital' - money you can afford to lose. Trading stocks and stock options involves high risk and you can lose the entire principal amount invested or more. There is no guarantee that systems, indicators, or trading signals will result in profits or that they will not produce losses. Some profit examples are based on hypothetical or simulated trading. This means the trades are not actual trades and instead are hypothetical trades based on real market prices at the time the recommendation is disseminated. No actual money is invested, nor are any trades executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. Also, the hypothetical results do not include the costs of subscriptions, commissions, or other fees. Because the trades underlying these examples have not actually been executed, the results may understate or overstate the impact of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Legacy makes no representations or warranties that any account will or is likely to achieve profits similar to those shown. No representation is being made that you will achieve profits or the same results as any person providing a testimonial. No representation is being made that any person providing a testimonial is likely to continue to experience profitable trading after the date on which the testimonial was provided, and in fact the person providing the testimonial may have subsequently experienced losses. 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