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Market Review:
Corrective or Anticipatory
The ES futures opened December at 4571.75 and rallied to a new high of the quarter at 4607.75. In other words, December has already traded higher than the high of November. Monday, and early Tuesday morning the market has been retracing that Friday rally. In one sense this early move down this week is a bit of a correction of Friday's rally. The rally was not just on Friday. Throughout November the market showed tremendous strength. ES futures in November were up over 8%. If the market is moving into a corrective mode, there could be a lot of correction ahead. If this pullback is anticipatory, that paints a different picture. The futures market may be prepping for life after rollover. When the March contract becomes lead the price of the ES will be roughly 50 points higher. This retracement could simply be in anticipation of the price point change. We should know by mid-December which this is.
US Equity Futures Indices will be rolling contracts at the end of this week. In the ES, the current high of the year is 4634.50. The Mach contract is trading roughly 50 points higher than the current December contract. That would make 4584.00 a line of demarcation. If we close this week above 4584.00, then we may open next week at the high of the year.
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